What is your #1 share pick for 2024?

30th Dec '23 by Albertos

42 comments 2327 reads

(EDIT - Now Finished)

(EDIT;

To be fair to all, given the number already received, nominations will close at 07:00 on 2nd January 2024.

Get picking.

Phil)

Asked this question for 2023 :-

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

I think it's fair to say the results were not good including my own selection which lasted less than a month in my own portfolio.

Secure Trust Bank -8.3%

Polarean Imaging -88.8%

Avingtrans -9.3%

Games Workshop 15.2%

Narf Industries -22.0%

Begbies Traynor -19.4%

SRT Marine Systems -10.8%

Futura Medical -50.2%

Arafura Rare Earths -64.5%

888 Holdings 9.9%

ME International 9.2%

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF 6.0%

IG Design 19.9%

Zytronic -36.9%

Somero Enterprises 0.0%

Average -16.7%

Interesting to note if someone had chosen the 2022 winner (MS International (LON:MSI) they would have won (31.6%).

Anyway, congrats abtan on your selection of IG Design (LON:IGR).

If people would like to play for 2024 the rules are (Ed's original):-

"Given we are not running the Stockopedia Challenge I thought it would be good to start a thread for everyone seeking good ideas for January.

Here are some ground rules for this thread.

For submissions:

Submit your pick as a comment - about one share - no more than one - just one. And only one share each please.
You must OWN the share. If you do not own it, please don't post it.
Add the NAME and TICKER symbol of the stock in question.
Add a LINK to the stockreport - (use the £TICKER format with spaces on either side to autolink)
Add a very brief PITCH about the share. A few lines may suffice - a link to further reading is always helpful - and any expectations you have.

For responders:

Reply to each share pick using the "Reply" button - so that they are nested contextually under the pick in question.
Vote up if you agree that it's a good pick. Don't vote up because you like the commenter.

It would be great to maintain information density, so please stick to the ground rules above so that the thread is useful for readers. There are NO PRIZES."

Regards

Phil

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abtan

31st Dec '23

IG Design (LON:IGR)

Fascinating to see that this emerged victorious for 2023.

All the more so since I actually sold 4 months into the year at a price marginally higher than what it is today (156p vs 148p) and it actually went much higher during the year (196p).

---

For 2024, I'm torn between:

Future (LON:FUTR)
Everyman Media (LON:EMAN)
Pets at Home (LON:PETS)

I think that 1. and 2. will shine through in either 2024 or 2025.

That leaves Pets at Home (LON:PETS) as my pick for the year, which I think will materially re-rate in 2024.

My rationale:

I believe that the CMA investigation, once it's concluded, won't have any material affect on the current operations of the Vets part of the business.
£44m was spent on a new distribution centre in FY23, with c£13m spent in FY24.
No more costs are expected here going forward.
£38m was spent on cloud-based digital investments in FY23, with a similar amount expected to be spent in FY24.
No more material costs are expected here in FY25 (which commences April 1st, 2024.)
Those last 2 points, I hope, are going to lead to a material increase in Free Cash Flow in FY25.
Efficiency gains expected from the new distribution centre.
Currently in a net cash position (excluding leases) which should grow significantly based on the above.

mojomogoz

I can only play a one stock game by picking a fairly high risk / high optionality position. So here goes:

Shield Therapeutics (LON:STX)

(It was between that and Aura Energy (LON:AURA) )

Be aware you can lose a lot to all your money on that if it doesn't turn out well.

Last year my pick was Narf Industries (LON:NARF) and that that was a larf!

Revs8

Renold (LON:RNO) excellent turnaround story in a resilient sector. Good management. Positive news flow. Chart looks inviting. (I hold).

Sunil

Marriot International (MAR) not a UK stock I know, but this is a quality play on the booming travel industry after the obvious slowdown in the early 2020's.

Snowbum

1st Jan

Lots of UK picks and non - compliant multi pick ‘hedges’ here but my ONE for 2024 is…. PagSeguro Digital (NYQ:PAGS) is placed nicely with exposure to a growth economy (Brazil) with driver from downward interest rate momentum, I’m looking for at least 2 bags from current levels (currently 12.7% of my isa).

gmtrader

It certainly looks interesting. Growth into other markets should increase the profit but the real growth will come from lower interest rates and money starts to move back into the market. So the question would be when will that happen? While interest rates will almost certainly come down this year they will not come down to previous lows, likely to stay around 3-4%. With many investors having money locked into 5% saving accounts the money will stay there until the 5% expires imo. So, I do see CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) rising this year but it will probably be next year when it takes off.

As for Peter Cruddas owning 59%, that is fine as long as you have bought near the bottom, but as it is 20% off the bottom I see it as a risk as the sp could well drop to a new low again.

It certainly is good value though but hard to tell if the bottom has been hit or not.

BenHazz

Seplat Energy (LON:SEPL) .

In short, I believe a combination of three factors will drive the share price to rerate at Seplat:

- Opening of ANOH gas plant

- Completion of the acquisition of MPNU from Exxon Mobil.

- Significant increase in the dividend (+Special Divi)

jonno

Trying to predict the future is a mugs games to paraphrase Peter Lynch, but as my dear Mum used to say "a little bit of foolishness now and then is relished by the wisest men".

So with this in mind I am going to plump for Avingtrans (LON:AVG) , which I hold and have done for quite some time, having made my first purchase at £2. If its medical division comprising Magnetica and Adaptix are successful in commercialising their portable MRI and X-ray scanners, the current share price will prove a bargain Adaptix already has FDA approval for its portable X-ray scanner. Magnetica's MRI scanner is following the same path and is to be submitted for FDA approval this year.

The management team, the two Steves', McQuillan (CEO) and King (CFO) are adept, down to earth and not given to hyperbole. In the meantime the other divisions that have significant involvement in highly regulated industries, such as nuclear and include Hayward Tyler and Booths Industries are worth the current share price alone, so the medical division and its potential are in the price for free.

Time will tell.

d024912

Surface Transforms Surface Transforms (LON:SCE)

SCE is a niche player in the UK automotive industry, specializing in innovative, lightweight ceramic brakes, a product particularly suited for electric and high-performance vehicles. Despite its small size, SCE has ambitious growth plans. However, it’s currently grappling with challenges typical of cutting-edge technology firms, such as recent furnace issues that have slowed production. This setback led to a cash crunch and subsequently, a significant dip in their share price. Encouragingly though, SCE has firm orders up to 2026 from major car manufacturers. If the company can scale up production effectively, it stands on the brink of an exciting phase. Given these developments, a substantial recovery in its share price within this year seems a plausible outcome.

Rusty2

Avingtrans (LON:AVG) was my pick last year, maybe 2024 will be an improvement, I still hold, no plans to sell.

KevinS1

My pick is Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS)

On a recovery journey with regular updates to its EPS and strong momentum across the last twelve months I can see this one going much further.

Personally late to the party, but its one I am happy to come to late and go with the momentum. With the dividend reinstated later in 2024 it should also attract further investment from II's.

14 Double Up

Jersey Oil and Gas (LON:JOG)

Fully carried to first oil, farmed out to Serica Energy (LON:SQZ) and Neo, valuing JOG’s remaining share at £6 per share.

Unprecedented

2nd Jan

Puretech Health (LON:PRTC) is a US based biotech listed on the LSE. Very successful track record, well connected board and very impressive CEO. They have spun off multiple drugs through satellite entities, the most successful one being Karuna Therapeutics (NMQ:KRTX) . Karuna is currently being taken over by Bristol Myers for $14B which will increase Puretech Health (LON:PRTC) cash reserves even further to be roughly equivalent to its market cap.

On top off that, royalties in Karuna that have been sold off and add up to $400M in stage payments are yet to be received whilst royalties over $2B sales that have not been sold could add up to $100M/year.

The most promising entity spun off in terms of short term gains other than Karuna is Vedanta in which Puretech retains 47% shareholding plus royalties. Vedanta has 4 major drugs in late stage development and there are rumours for an IPO in 2024.

The most promising in-house drug is LYT-100 with phase 2 results due this year. It is similar to Karuna in that they have taken an existing drug with proven efficacy but negative adverse effects and worked their magic to improve the side effect profile. With a fast tracked phase 3, it could soon be a multi-billion blockbuster for a devastating disease (IPF).

Puretech's share price performance has been dismal, suffering from its unusual structure, from being listed in London and due to ongoing sales by its largest share holder (Invesco). However its success rate in drug development has been spectacular and with the inflection points coming up now it is likely that that disconnect will end in 2024 - either through a take over but hopefully by a market rerating.

PitBullCH

Will go with Chemring (CHG) - have a feeling the current geopolitical situation will get much worse before it gets better, and that's a plus for defence-focused companies.

AD09

Mears (LON:MER) is my top pick for 2024. Three main reasons why i think they should do very well this year, 1) The massive rise in Asylum accomodation numbers 2) Bid wins in 2023 (MOD, North Lanarkshire contracts, and other council wins ) 3) New housing/maintenace works when economy picks up in 2024.

Great start!

rmillaree

CMC Markets (LON:CMCX)

My thoughts align with gm trader - i have bought some of these recently when price was below 100p. Its a somewhat punt type investment due to decent asset backing and potential for company to get back in sweet spot at some time when its making load of money. I would say its not a high conviction play due to regualtory issues and high variability in propsects.

Looking at the age of Peter Cruddas i would suspect he is more likely to cash in his chips here rather than take private but it is somewhat risky having large shareholder i would agree and perhaps it would be easier to sell if he took it private first and did sale off grid particualrly if he is in the know enough to be more confident than the market ref future propsects of the company. I wouldnt presume this company would return to anything like past glories but facts areb i am clueless as to how the futuire wil be here.

Ok too late with my post but here we go anyway i am hoping this company will be a dependable plodder in 2024.

Redde Northgate (LON:REDD)

The froth may have gone out the market for redd somewhat as used vehicle prices moderate but directors here seem to run tight ship - p/e rationis cheap at under 7 - they are expanding long term commercial contracts side of teh business and net asset value is decently above the current market cap for the company. It does have chunky debt but their stock of vehicles does have to be funded from somewhere (whilst they are expanding fleet size - if they werent investing for growth debt should be able to come down rapidly) - and there is the nice fully covered divi of nearly 7% whilst you wait.

Burford Capital (LON:BUR)

Has won a court case against Argentina worth $6bn to Burford, which the government has started to indicate they want to pay in full.

To add some clarity here the pm said they specifically dont have the money to pay this debt off here. Until such time as they default (or come to an agreement to settle) i would expect them to not show their hand here - so i would judge em more on the fact they are saying they cant afford to pay rather than the fact they said they might like to pay in an ideal world (probably over 30 years with 50% haircut) that doesnt exist.

Albertos

Many thanks for all the nominations.

Four missed my deadline of 7a.m 2/1/24 but unless there is major dissent I plan to include them in the picks :-

Puretech Health (LON:PRTC)

Chemring (LON:CHG)

Mears (LON:MER)

None had any news today or major price moves but are interesting selections.

What is your #1 share pick for 2024?

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Albertos

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