Hard to believe, but is the vix index going into an extended period of low volatility as indicated by Monthly EMA 50 (Black line) Crossing Monthly EMA 89 (Blue line). Only happened twice before this century! Only a short period of time I know. (vix in main panel S&P 500 top panel)
A target of 18,11 has been suggested by A J Monte who I follow and there is a gap to be filled at 16,63.
Gaps on the VIX always fill because it is an oscillator, not a negotiable instrument.
UVXY on New York is leveraged X 2 and my position is getting larger to reduce the average price rather than because of conviction of a meltdown.
Nevertheless U.S. stocks are over-bought on numerous metrics. Not only did they react to Powell's dovish speech but they persisted through the Santa Rally. Some thought it would not show up but it has, at least for now. When it ends after the first two trading days of 2024 we shall see if the two hesitant candles on IWM and DIA have spread to other indices.
A reversion to the mean, minimally, is due.
Can the VIX really be trusted and read like other charts though?? I'm not saying it doesn't follow some traits or be used as reference. I just think that with the VIX being a measurement of volatility in the market, I don't think it can be as relied upon as a trigger.
Surely the EMA's are also trailing indicators. The reason you get volatility is due to unexpected and unpriced events by the market. A chart cant predict that.
I do appreciate your point im just highlighting caution, as an example, it only takes more escalation in the Red Sea to worry companies further and get more delays and costs.
Never rely fully on fundamentals, same as you don't fully rely on technicals...
