Video. Where are the markets heading? Find out here from Edmund Shing, Patrick Armstrong & Chris Watling

25th Oct '23 by Paul Hill

10 comments 796 reads

In this capital markets discussion, Christopher Watling (CEO Longview Economics), Patrick Armstrong, CFA (CIO Plurimi Wealth) and Edmund Shing (CIO BNP Paribas Wealth Management) take me through:

00:00 Has the yield on 10 US Treasury peaked?
05:35 Economic outlook
08:20 How will equities perform?
10:05 Favourite sector.
14:45 What is a fair PE multiple for stocks?
16:30 UK homebuilders
19:20 Banks
29:00 Megacap tech
34:40 Commodities & industrial metals
40:25 Best investment ideas
45:10 Which areas could blow up next?

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About the Author

Paul Hill

Premium Member

Stocks owned : EQLS, AGFX, Pfizer, Bristol Myers, Roche, WATR, VCT, MBH, ASTO, IOM, TR25, ESYS, ELCO, IHC, Paypal & AOM Elsewhere, I'm also paid by Vox Markets (as a contractor) to interview interview fund managers, capital market experts & companies (re EQLS, VRCI, BELL, FIN, AVG, AVCT, LLAI, VLG, FADL, SUP, ELCO, LORD , MPAC & ONC). I believe all these stocks are clients of Vox.Lastly my 24 year HIT RATE is only 62%. Meaning 38% of the time I lose money (ie often wrong) - albeit my winners are (on average) 1.5x larger than my losers. Please Do Your Own Research. more »

10 comments

DarwenLad

26th Oct '23

Very good discussion. Many thanks

Paul Hill

26th Oct '23

My pleasure Darwen. Agreed, these guys are 1st class

Alphaflight

26th Oct '23

There is nothing to stop yields rising from here as far as I can see. In fact we might see a re-run of the 1960 to 1980 period (higher energy prices).

I definitely wouldn't sell gold to buy TIPS, that is entirely obtuse with the US Empire in its death throes. All of the BRICS countries are accumulating physical gold hand over fist right now - They aren't buying long dated US Government debt (Treasuries) anymore post Russian sanctions.

US 10 Year Treasury Chart:

Paul Hill

27th Oct '23

William K

27th Oct '23

Some very intelligent analysis. Thanks for posting Paul.

Paul Hill

27th Oct '23

My pleasure William & many thanks for the kind words.

Saxonboy57

30th Oct '23

Really interesting. I will look at some of these suggestions

Anthony127

3rd Nov '23

Thank you for this very timely sectoral and economic analysis.

I was particularly interested in the housebuilders as this is the area I think of most in terms of being impacted by the business cycle.

Christopher Watling indicated that housebuilders could trough in the next 3-6 months but should do well over 3-5 years.

On the face of it the demographics look very good for housebuilders. There are an awful lot of young people who are enforced renters or still living with their parents in their late twenties and thirties. These people want to buy houses but are prevented from doing so because mortgages are too expensive and it requires interest rates to be cut before this pent up purchasing can take place.

This leads me to wander which of the central banks will be the first to cut rates. With UK CPI Inflation recently reported as 6.7% it appears that the Bank of England will be unlikely to cut rates soon and indeed I am left wandering whether the recent decision to hold rates was a little premature. By contrast I wonder whether the ECB may cut sooner than later. Eurozone CPI just reported is 2.9% and clearly much better than the UK's. Additionally Germany which is the largest economy in the Eurozone appears to be flirting with recession which could precipitate a rate cut by the ECB.

On this basis I wonder whether Irish housebuilders may be a good area to consider. I think that they could be first movers/forerunners in the forthcoming cycle.

LANE

30th Nov '23

Excellent discussion

Paul Hill

1st Dec '23

Great comments Antony127 & many thanks

Clearly its never easy to predict exactly what the central will do. But my insight is the BoE & ECB will start cutting in Q2’24, with the Federal Reserve 3 months later in Q3.

Meaning yield curves should steepen next year as the front-end falls (lower real yields), term premiums rise (sovereign credit ratings), QT continues & government debt issues increase just as natural buyers dry up (eg China, Japan & Fed).

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Video. Where are the markets heading? Find out here from Edmund Shing, Patrick Armstrong & Chris Watling

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About the Author

Paul Hill

10 comments

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