Trading U.K stock market using Mark Minervini strategy

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14th Dec '18 by unwise2

1516 comments 108971 reads

Mark has been interviewed by Stocko a couple of times and from some of the comments on various threads there appears to be a few of us using his methods to trade the U.K stock market. I thought it would be useful to have a dedicated thread where we can discuss how well its working.

Personally I have been in cash at least 50% since the end of May and at 95-100% since early October. Getting out of stocks as they roll over has protected me from any real damage.

I'm struggling to find many setups I want to buy so I am developing my "sit out power"

How is everyone else doing?

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About the Author

Unwise2

Premium Member

1516 comments

Albertos

24th Jul '19

Herbie RockRose Energy (LON:RRE)

Been suspended since February due to the deal.

Been in contact with Stocko - evidently its on the new version now its been unsuspended - be on the old system in a couple of days.

Phil

dmjram

27th Jul '19

Thank you, glad you found it useful.

Slim pickings recently, hopefully will improve in the run up to the year end.

unwise2

30th Jul '19

I have spent the last week reviewing the charts of all stocks down to a Mcap of £40m to see how setups have performed in the first 6 months of 2019. To qualify as a winner the gain must be at least double the amount risked and a minimum of 15%. Maximum stop loss is 10% and often lower.

If you traded only shares that exactly matched 50d over 150d over 200d there were 18 winners and 17 losers.

Mark has said on his MPA service that in a large and long correction the 150d can be pulled under the 200d while a base formed. If you include stocks that were in stage 2 prior to the most recent base forming but the 150d has been pulled under the 200d due to the correction then winners were 26 and losers were 23. In all cases the 150d was slightly below the 200d and the 50d was above both.

There were a couple of others that were a bit borderline that haven't been included.

AnonymousUser340823

30th Jul '19

ABDP looks like a textbook VCP - but would the breakout need to be to 2730 or anything about the current level on good volume will suffice?

unwise2

30th Jul '19

5d4027f394e93Chart-ab-dynamics-3062019.p

Not sure why you have picked 2730p, the old high was 2750p. To me 2640p looks like a possible cheat entry point, preferably with higher than average volume.

Rusty2

30th Jul '19

Where do you get the high figures from? My broker says the all time high is 2735p, Stocko seems to be 2710p. Is it the close of day price or actually all time high?

unwise2

30th Jul '19

Look at the Ab Dynamics (LON:ABDP) chart, shows a high of 2750p on 3 different days. My Level 2 feed (quotestream) also shows a high of 2750p on May 23rd/24th and June 10th.

AnonymousUser340823

30th Jul '19

The old fat finger. I meant 2630 on high than average volume, not 2730

llwydiaid

30th Jul '19

Very interesting analysis. Did all the "winners" display vcp and breakout? Would it be possible to list some of the "winners" so that I can study and learn lessons for the next 6 months?

psin

31st Jul '19

good reply llwydiaid and thank you unwise2 for what I know is a lot of hard work and eye-strain.
when you finished your research, what was your gut feeling, what did you really learn from it?
I agree that a small list of winners and losers would be most instructive.
Thanks.

unwise2

31st Jul '19

First of all I was disappointed that my win ratio was circa 33% over the same period the actual win loss ratio over all setups was more like 50%. I was aware of a lot of the winning setups but didn't trade them at the time because the fundamentals looked poor. An example of this is Future (LON:FUTR), when it broke out it was on a forecast P/E of just over 20 and forecast EPS growth of just over 3%. The P/E already looked too high for very low growth. It went on to more than double.

Apparently your better off not making judgement calls on what does or does not look expensive. I will look into posting the list of winners and losers.

unwise2

31st Jul '19

I am attaching the list of winners. I suggest when you look at the charts you move them so the last day shown on the right is the day of breakout. You will then be looking at the chart as you would have seen it. I suggest a 12m daily. The gain shown is the maximum possible, in reality you are not going to sell at the high but you don't need to to generate significant gains. Stocks in blue meet the stage 2 /IPO criteria, stocks in black don't quite strictly meet stage 2 criteria because one of the DMA has been pulled down in a long base (probably due to market correction/bear market). Terms low handle and high handle are how I personally see the setup and are subjective. Some setups are obvious and some are more subtle which some of you might not agree with (Mark sometimes has stocks on his watchlist that I don't understand).

If you have any comments or questions feel free to ask.

unwise2

31st Jul '19

This is the list of losers, average loss was 5.4%. Even with slippage average loss would probably be around 6%.

llwydiaid

31st Jul '19

Many thanks unwise2 for the list of stocks. That's sorted my homework for the next few weeks!

HumourMe

31st Jul '19

After a quick scan there seem to be more high volume breakouts in the winners, however, this wasn't a pre-requisite to be a winner.

stock_Hunter

1st Aug '19

Hi unwise,
Can u look JD sports ...what is your view.....Looks good setup

unwise2

1st Aug '19

JD Sports Fashion (LON:JD.) has formed a cup and might be in the process of creating a handle. An agressive trader could have bought when it broke through 632p on the 29th (low handle/cheat). One thing to consider is JD has come a very long way, it was approx 10p back in 2009. The recent trading update sounded positive.

andrea34

1st Aug '19

My only concern with JD Sports Fashion (LON:JD.) is the competition investigation into it's acquisition of Foot Asylum

unwise2

1st Aug '19

I have now looked at the volume around the breakouts of the winners listed, 15 out of 29 had what I would describe as high volume. Some were very obvious like d4t4 and some were a bit borderline. I know 6 months is a very short time frame but it explains why Mark will still buy a breakout if it doesn't have high volume. Out of the 15 only 6 had "perfect" setups of low volume before and high volume on day of breakout.

I'm going to look at the losers next.

HumourMe

1st Aug '19

I'm still getting my head around volume, however, this Wyckoffian explanation has helped immensely. This is a framework that I think is useful for understanding stage 1 and 3, although I think that it also has useful lessons for stage 2 consolidations. It has certainly helped me to gain an understanding of shakeouts and springs. I now pay much more attention to confirmation (large movement, higher volume) and discrepancies (large volume, little movement or large movement, little volume) which are purported to flag the relative supply/demand balance.

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Trading U.K stock market using Mark Minervini strategy

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Unwise2

1516 comments

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