Trade/Chart Ideas

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5th Dec '24 by Wolf of Small Street

1346 comments 38299 reads

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Wolf Of Small Street

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1346 comments

Revs8

Thu 4:00pm

Hi Helvellyn,

I'm fully invested and the last 2 weeks have been good. I am still down on the year but optimistic that the year will end positive. My portfolio is concentrated in a few conviction stocks that meet my (growth + dividend) to PE criterion. Of late most of the charts are showing a similar, very positive pattern.

The last time I went to cash (2022) it took a while to realise that the market had turned so I ended up roughly in the same place, had I stayed invested. This time I was too slow to see the downturn so I stayed invested. I believe (hope) we are at the point where investors, who are heavily in cash, start to re-enter the market.

What could drive such an upturn? Maybe investors avoiding the US market. It would only take a percentage of UK investor money switching to UK stocks to see a significant upturn. Of course my sentiment and the market could suddenly turn the other way but right now I am seeing positive signs.

Here are a few charts of my holdings that are showing upturning indicators.

Brickability (LON:BRCK) All indicators heading the right way. Trying to break above 200DmA at 63.2. I added today on the positive news. Personally I feel it will multibag by end of 2026 if market conditions improve. There is also a vast pipeline of tower blocks that still need cladding replacing.

International Personal Finance (LON:IPF) One of my largest holdings. Just getting going IMO. All indicators heading the right way. MACD about to cross over. Early from a chart point of view. Target 180p in short/medium term?

PayPoint (LON:PAY) Again similar pattern. I think the low is in for 2025/6.

Jet2 (LON:JET2) Need some positive booking news to break the resistance but again indicators look good.

Tp Icap (LON:TCAN) tested the bottom of the channel. When will we get some news about Parameter? Again the same pattern.

Gamma Communications (LON:GAMA) May take time but small H&S bottom indicator.

CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) Should do well on volatility (market thinks so). Recent director buy.

Wynnstay (LON:WYN) Just started a position here. New management and better weather could change fortunes. Chart showing signs of life. Is this the bottom of the cycle? Same positive pattern on the chart.

TEIN

Thu 8:09pm

One thing I know management can't control Revs is the weather! Great reply and chart set, thanks for sharing.

TEIN

Thu 10:00pm

Are you feeling the urge to be (more) in the game but can't quite bring yourself to Helvellyn? I can't really say with any cofidence where global markets go from here and would much rather focus on sectors and companies I know and can understand. I do believe there is a lot of value on offer. I don't know that there won't be even better value tomorrow or next week or month, because the value now seems better than what I previously thought was good value! I have been thinking lately:

On the S&P 50/ 200 MA 'rule' that Wolf once mentioned, I can imagine him sitting it out. "The tape never lies"
Aren't we supposed to 'go away in May', in which case isn't the immediate outlook already set?
The worse it gets the more opportunity it presents, so I am invested but with significant cash, because fortune favours the brave
Macro impacts companies differently. For example there has been conversation here that spread betters benefit, so I'm most interested in interpreting the macro at a company level rather than a political or economic level

I think your view is that things might get worse before they get better but you have a nagging doubt that this last couple of weeks might be more than a brief rally. I'm on that fence to, but I can't not be active so I'm somewhere in between, over 40% cash and that likely won't shrink much in the immediate term. I'm acting cautiously, nibbling at stuff and avoiding concentration, tightening stock picking rules, working very hard on entry timing, quality, momentum, ruthless stop loss criteria etc. It's a good time to be certain of oneself, contrarian viewpoints, and a very bad time for FOMO, wide spreads, ignoring the chart. Note to self, never ignore the chart.

Revs8

Fri 6:14am

Watched VOX markets with Paul Hill and Paul Scott yesterday. They suggested (and apparently Jupiter have also commented) that money is moving out of US equities. Paul Scott pointed out there are no sellers left in UK small caps.

BnB

Fri 6:44am

Paul Scott pointed out there are no sellers left in UK small caps.

Tell that to the board of RWS. The CEO found sufficient sellers to back up the truck yesterday.

JimMcLad

Fri 7:22am

Helvellyn

This morning’s issue of Points Of Return by Bloomberg’s John Authers goes through the Stephen Miran ‘plan’ that Trump is supposed to be following - well worth a read IMO. You can see the article at

https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/points-of-return?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=authers

and can sign up for the free daily issue.

Rusty2

Fri 7:25am

Nonsense, what about Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) ?

what did they say about Argentex (LON:AGFX) which l believe Paul Hill holds.

Helvellyn

Fri 7:25am

Thanks to those that replied to my musings. I think i had said before that I didnt mind having some time out of the market as I had worked extremely hard for 5 years and thought now was a pretty good time to take a step back. However I also wanted to have a plan. I had bought some US S&P and Nasdaq ETF's in Nov when it was obvious that Trump would get in, I figured that all his ridiculous tariff rhetoric was similar to his previous term's rantings about a wall around Mexico and he had no real intention of implementing them. When it was obvious I was wrong I sold down most holdings to about 80%cash, this was probably the correct strategy for me at the time. I was happy to sit in cash getting 3-5.5% plus adding to this with dividends on existing LT holdings and some momentum trading gains with a view to reviewing the situation this coming autumn. The reason for my post yesterday was more to do with helping me understand where the markets were. John Authers' piece today is very timely Trump Plan: Where's Mike Tyson With Economic Advice When You Need Him? - Bloomberg and suggests that I was also wrong in thinking that Trump had some cunning plan that most had not spotted. Authers and others seem to think that Trump was/is just plain wrong and his tariff plan has backfired. The gains in the US indices this week would also bear this out. If so the time to be buying equities was April 4th at peak fear as it usually is , I was aware that this was possible if not probable but I was not convinced enough to start buying, I dont mind missing out on the big penny. This is my only form of income, I do not have to shoot the lights out to have a comfortable lifestyle therefore risk/reward is paramount, if I lose my capital I have nothing to trade with. There are so many different ways to play the stock market and the key is to find one that suits your personality, risk tolerance and lifestyle. I am happy to trade some momentum for a 10-20% short term gain and then recycle that capital into the next position, done correctly this can produce fantastic profits, you dont need to hold stocks for years to multibag your money! With Trump and China, this morning, both starting to backtrack maybe the worst is over and we can get back to some sort of normality.

On stock specifics I have recently bought smallish positions in International Personal Finance (LON:IPF) CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) and Made Tech (LON:MTEC) and looked at Brickability (LON:BRCK) yesterday without actually buying, I have traded this twice in the last year once very successfully and more recently for a small loss as I got back in too early. If markets do get back to normal then MA's should get back to trending back up and we can get back to looking forward to some great trade opportunities.

Helvellyn

Fri 7:28am

Jim,

thanks, our posts crossed and I highlight JA's piece in mine too.

Helvellyn

Fri 7:31am

Unfortunately Paul Hill has obviously lost an awful lot of money on Argentex (LON:AGFX) . He was visibly shocked and pointed out that if he had bought through a spread bet on margin he would probably have lost everything, house and all. Now that is a very scary thought!

Rusty2

Fri 7:37am

Wow did not realise he was in that deep. I was lucky l sold out about 4 weeks ago, was getting too volatile for me.

Talking of volatile have you seen Carclo (LON:CAR) today, went from 34p to 30p in one minute.

sevenccc

Fri 10:20am

Hell

Tempted to topslice any bounce during the 90 day pause from the Orange Man. The worry for me is that this only the first 100 days..... He has a limited amount of (many things) patience and a huge amount of ego. If he resolves everything to his satisfaction in the next few months where does that short attention span turn to next? And that's the upside!

I enjoy listening to Yanis Varoufakis to get an alternative take on economics and even sometimes agree with him. He doesn't seem to have called the drop in the dollar though, in fact the exact opposite, and this is an aspect I am struggling to interpret the impacts of. Some say it makes US exports cheaper, others that it magnifies the inflation the US seems intent on importing. That would limit their Interest Rate cuts and reduce their GDP growth presumably.

Interesting that China have called out his lies on negotiations. Unfortunately our media, commentators and pundits only get attention and clicks by out amplifying each other in the fear and anxiety stakes. Apparently the commentary in China is more measured. They take the long view and may be happy to wait him out, even for the full term.

Barclays note this morning that China is reducing/withdrawing a 13% subsidy to their Aluminium exports. They produce 60% of global aluminium. Is this indicative of where the authorities there are starting to cut unnecessary expenditure too? A little more for the domestic pot? Dare I say it is also high time they had their status changed in the WTO. How can such a huge trading nation have Developing Nation status? After 25 years in the WTO this surely needs reviewing. I suspect Trump will angle to move US out of WTO and possibly even the IMF if he doesn't like their reviews/forecasts. If there is any financial obligation on the US even more likely. Friends and allies are not required in his universe. Just people to do business with on terms the US dictate. 'Cos they hold all the cards, natch.

The only certainly seems to be we are in for more uncertainty. Worth keeping some cash for the occasional calamity. Sorry, opportunity. I'm too heavily invested currently and down about 6% on the year for the privilege so that colours my thinking. I didn't panic early enough. C'est la Vie.

TEIN

Fri 11:11am

Wednesday saw a lurch up from recent lows on no news (though there has been a directorate change) at MJ GLEESON (LON:GLE) this week. Now I've highlighted it you can expect it to lurch in the other direction. Still within the recently formed channel. Doesn't generally move in sync with the big boys. Shoul probably sell off Gleeson Land if it were worth anything, but what do I know?

TEIN

Fri 11:26am

I've no idea what the results are going to say next week but there's a fair bit of volume vs. the norm at Camellia (LON:CAM) this week. It's taken a battering lately but is that broader market sentiment or bad news on the way? Significant organisational change, buying back a few shares most days, exposed to the tea estate squatting problem in Africa, made a death cross Wednesday. Book value not far off three times the market cap:

Paul Walton

Fri 11:34am

Following on from Tein's post, Housebuilders composite formed a double bottom with individual stocks mostly doing the same

Bellway (LON:BWY) Cairn Homes (LON:CRN) Crest Nicholson Holdings (LON:CRST) MJ GLEESON (LON:GLE) Persimmon (LON:PSN) Barratt Redrow (LON:BTRW) Springfield Properties (LON:SPR) Vistry (LON:VTY) Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW.) Watkin Jones (LON:WJG)

Copy the below into TradingView if you have it and you'll get the composite

LSE:BWY+LSE:CRN+LSE:CRST+LSE:GLE+LSE:PSN+LSE:BTRW+LSE:SPR+LSE:TW.+LSE:VTY+LSE:WJG

Helvellyn

Fri 1:53pm

Made Tech (LON:MTEC)

I have been pretty lucky with this one, usually just by buying ahead of results which have pleased the market. I bought in again when it bounced off the 200ema recently. It has had some good volume recently too. I am hoping for a move back up to 30p initially. There should be a FY25 TU in May or June that could propel it further.

Revs8

Fri 2:22pm

Clearly that statement “no sellers left” is generalised. Obviously there will be many cases like Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) where profits are being taken. However, there are many good companies showing signs of making a bottom because investors know they are good and undervalued so not selling in any volume.

Revs8

Fri 2:25pm

We tend to trust (maybe too much) that companies can’t suddenly go pop without warning. Makes you stop and think, “what if?”

Rusty2

Fri 2:29pm

Maybe but there are also many, trapped in stocks looking to get out, if the price rises, l have quite a few of those. Also profit taking before they fall again like Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) has done several times. Some money has gone from the US but their market is up about 10% in the last 2 weeks, so must be some flowing back in.
l do wonder if the UK market is worth all the hassle.

Revs8

Fri 2:37pm

Agree that trapped sellers will want out which is why overhead resistance exists. Jet2 (LON:JET2) , CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) and PayPoint (LON:PAY) all going to face resistance, which is why H&S bottoms form. However I also think global confidence in the US has been shaken by the fickle nature of Trump tweets and the US might be an underperformer over the next few years.

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Wolf Of Small Street

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