The markets are primed for a fall. Find out why here.

20th Apr '23 by Paul Hill

60 comments 3048 reads

Long term ‘White’ will win the equity ‘Chess’ tournament. Find out here why from Justin Waite & myself of Vox Markets, alongside:

What the #VIX at 17 is telling #investors . Start
The Eggfree Cake Box. 10:55
XP Factory. 16:20
Supreme PLC. 17:25
Moneysupermarket Group. 24:05
Argentex Group PLC. 25:55
Justin Waite BUYS Good Energy. 30:35
Destiny Pharma plc. 36:55
Avacta. 37:45

Disclosure: I own Argentex whilst Justin holds #MONY, #DEST, #XPF & #GOOD. I was not paid to record this video. All views expressed are my own.

Separately I have been paid by Vox Markets for recording different company interviews with #CBOX, #AVCT, #AGFX & #SUP - all of which have been previously disclosed.

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About the Author

Paul Hill

Premium Member

Stocks owned : EQLS, AGFX, Pfizer, Bristol Myers, Roche, WATR, VCT, MBH, ASTO, IOM, TR25, ESYS, ELCO, IHC, Paypal & AOM Elsewhere, I'm also paid by Vox Markets (as a contractor) to interview interview fund managers, capital market experts & companies (re EQLS, VRCI, BELL, FIN, AVG, AVCT, LLAI, VLG, FADL, SUP, ELCO, LORD , MPAC & ONC). I believe all these stocks are clients of Vox.Lastly my 24 year HIT RATE is only 62%. Meaning 38% of the time I lose money (ie often wrong) - albeit my winners are (on average) 1.5x larger than my losers. Please Do Your Own Research. more »

60 comments

Paul Hill

23rd Apr '23

Now that's easy. Hallelujah. Finally sorted. Please read the above amended disclosure.

Albertos

23rd Apr '23

Well I for one enjoyed the video - thanks Paul.

Bizarre comments section to say the least.

WarrantStar and Mojomogoz, I know who Paul Hill and Robbie Burns are, but I don't know who you are just as you don't know who I am. I didn't ask you to police this community but you obviously have an agenda - perhaps you should also confirm whether you have been paid for your posts.

WarrantStar

23rd Apr '23

Albertos Thank you very much for your question. Unfortunately Stockopedia does not separate contributors into clearly defined categories such as: Paying Subscribers, Stockopedia employees or contractors, Other parties paid to influence subscribers. So my very clear agenda is to get all comments put into one of those categories.(Yes people are paid to influence us). You may not think that this matters. But do you really want to read contributors comments without knowing that somebody is paying them to influence private investors opinions? I can confirm that I nobody has EVER paid me to make any post. All I am trying to do here is to introduce TRANSPARENCY about the contributors and why they post the content that they do. Do you really want to buy a share as a result of a contributor that makes a post for the only reason that they are being paid by by some company to influence private investor's opinions? Yes there really are people who post on Stockopedia with the primary intention of influencing investor's opinions. Smart investors will try not to suffer the investment losses that are likely to be associated with that.

WarrantStar

23rd Apr '23

Paul Hill. Thank you for your reply.

I would like to make the following comments: 1) I never vented any anger on you. But it seems that you are very angry about my posts. However, I just want Stockopedia to make improvements around classifying posts which are made by people who are being paid to influence investor's opinions. 2) I note that you have modified the content of your comment that I am replying to so as to remove the comment that you originally made about people dying for comments such as mine. 3) It was not me that reported your comment. At least one other subscriber found your original, and subsequently modified reply, to be inappropriate and offensive. 4) I am not aware of any mechanism by which I might block you. But if you can inform everyone about such a mechanism, then many people could benefit from blocking you. 5) I am not hounding you as you have suggested in another part of the comment that I am replying to and which you have subsequently deleted. 6) Your evasiveness in avoiding giving any DIRECT answers to my questions speaks volumes and the sophisticated investors that pay for their subscriptions on here will draw their own conclusions on this matter. 7) This matter is not all about you. What this really about is introducing TRANSPARENCY about why people make their posts on Stockopedia. Apparently you don't want that to happen because it would probably be damaging to your interests. However, I note that you are taking small steps in the direction of transparency in the hope that you might be able to avoid being forced to take bigger steps towards transparency in the future.

If others paying subscribers feel strongly about the very important subject of transparency, then please vote this comment up and I will start a separate post about transparency with the objective of introducing improvements to Stockopedia's processes on postings.

GloucesterBob

23rd Apr '23

Some of the other contributors, Roland, Graham etc also have their own websites, not sure I have seen any of them inform us whether they get paid or not for each company they post about.

Ultimately if Ed doesn't have a problem with these posters then neither do I.

Is there not a danger that you may drive the likes of Paul Hill, Tamzin, etc away and would that make Stockopedia a better place, I think not.

simoan

24th Apr '23

I really don’t understand why the stuff Paul and others put up is causing so much anger. The biggest influencer on this whole website is quite clearly Paul Scott. Does it matter if Paul is paid or not? I guarantee that does not effect his influence on others. Does it matter that Robbie Burns has subscribers who pay to follow him? Again, that changes nothing with regard to his influence on the actions of others.

There are forms of influence everywhere, whether blatant or not, it does not matter. Rather than question everyone’s motives, it’s just far better to understand how influence works so you can counteract it yourself. Go read the Cialdini book. It will change your outlook so you can concentrate on your own investing. You may even decide the powerful influence of commitment and consistency mean you interact less on these forums to your benefit.

mojomogoz

24th Apr '23

Hello. Just catching up. You really are terribly thin skinned and easily butt hurt for someone so attention seeking.

My initial response to you was full of information counter your rather simplistic statement that low VIX predicts market fall. I wonder if any punters found that as incentive to buy VIX and if I gave them pause to think then good. It might work...but beware the very expensive theta decay and roll in these options...using VIX as a hedge can become very expensive and is not necessarily well correlated to one's portfolio risk. You went all manchild and cried personal injury.

I stick by it being reasonable to say this article was clickbait. In fact, from a marketing perspective its quite cynical, clever and manipulative...how good sales in financial services works...you're good at it! (Take that as a compliment or however you wish) I mean at the moment it would lack credibility to sell sunshine so when pushing microcaps you got to show some caution...right?

You are a 'professional' of sorts pitching to influence often fairly inexperienced people. You've set yourself up as market/stock seer so I felt fine to take you on about it (I did the same with Venture Life (LON:VLG) when you promoted this company, paid for I believe, glossing over their past sins regarding wonky reporting and capital use/waste) . You get butt hurt with disagreement. Your style seems to be to shout down counter argument. Not a good image...and hey, everyone on here knows I can be a bit of an asshole. In fact, I'm rather contrary and as the collective tendency is to be bullish and maybe whip up a bit of bull herding I often take the negative side. I know I'm not well liked by many here - not my aim, but I'm not that bothered about it

Clearly, your activity on here is promotion of self and for clients. Why shouldn't you be held to account for what you say. Or are we supposed to fall into line and marvel at your brilliance. As far as I can tell (I don't follow your stuff) you don't provide much in the way of analysis or method for people....so you are pure Pied Piper.

TBC markets may well fall. We are in edgy times. But dubious analysis is always banalysis...particularly when a self acclaimed market player makes it

mojomogoz

24th Apr '23

Albertos. A little bit of a bizarre point.

Like you, I'm an ordinary punter. If you want to know who I am then its easy to find out if you look. I'm not hidden. But you seem to suggest that I need a website and profile to be able to comment inside Stocko.

As for my police action...is disagreeing and arguing a police action? I've not sought to police Paul Hill. I've interacted twice 1) his dodgy points around VIX and 2) his paid promotional for Venture Life (LON:VLG) . Is that unfair of me? If you don't like me just ignore

And TBC whether Paul Hill is paid to do this particularly video or not is a bit irrelevant. He is paid by companies to promote them and so sometimes when he speaks he's talking his own book and sometimes he's promoting a company he has a relationship with. He provided very little in the way of analysis. I have not said whether this should or should not be on Stocko...

I note he posts a lot though...and to tbh I don't bother following his disclaimers and just assume Paul Hill means promotion (for himself or for stock paying him). So in my fabulously comedic mind I always see it and think....here we go...

...it's the Paul Shill Show ;)

mojomogoz

24th Apr '23

TBC GBob...PI World / Tamzin provides information and never recommendation. She is paid by the cos for the video production. Is that wrong? You've got a lot of IR firms and InvestorMeetCompany platform to gripe about too. Or even brokerage/analyst firms (like Equity Development who strangely some have given a hard time as if they are same as Hill). Be careful what you wish for. I'm not seeking to shut people down.

I pretty sure Paul S, Roland, Graham, etc are NOT paid by cos (Paul states this). However, I view them as materially different as they provide detailed analysis and this is valuable. Obviously, buyer beware, it's still daft to just follow stocks they like. I'd value Paul Hill more if he provided analysis/method...that's valuable...but IMO just providing shallow commentary and tips, well, that's only valuable to Paul Hill in that either he's paid for it directly or indirectly by pushing liquidity into microcaps that he's already positioned in. But you don't need to agree with me...if you want tips to chase and fade then Paul H is your man it seems,

Then there are many fintwit names that represent their stocks to followers. Again buyer beware...but many of them provide good informative analysis and insight into method (ExpectingValue, StockWhittler, EricUKInvestor, Shiftingshares etc). Personally, I don't follow anyones recommendations/analysis...I like to do my own errors.

bsharman

24th Apr '23

People should calm down. Paul Hill provides excellent content and is an exceptional analysist - I particularly enjoy the interviews he does with fund managers. Yes, he has a relationship with VOX Markets and some companies mentioned also have a relationship with VOX Markets - but so what? Individual investors should always be cautious of this type of promotional material and not go out and buy shares just because the company in question has presented on VOX. It would be great to have Paul as a writer on stockopedia - perhaps providing some analysis of mid cap companies.

bsharman

24th Apr '23

Also, he quite often posts his portfolio, so is quite transparent about what he is holding.

LeoInvestorUK

24th Apr '23

For experienced investors Paul Hill (and Justin Waite) have long provided a valuable service in highlighting which stocks are being promoted by Vox and so should be avoided. But I think there is is risk that when these articles appear on Stockopedia alongside serious content then beginners could be led astray.

Guybrush

24th Apr '23

I found Paul's post on the Banking crises very illuminating and his time spent posting on here is not definately not wasted on me. It is obviously wasted on some, but surely they don't have to read his posts? The poster's name is clearly visible beside each post, so feel free to ignore it. Also, it must be quite insulting to hear from posters insisting on him stating whether he has been paid or not, as if its anyone business except his.

Paul is providing valuable stock analysis, for free. Does Robbie burns do that? I don't think so. As for newbie investors, the first assumption should always be to assume that everyone is paid and has an agenda, otherwise one's trading career will be a very short one indeed.

simoan

24th Apr '23

Also, he quite often posts his portfolio, so is quite transparent about what he is holding.

How do you know it’s really his portfolio though? I just totally ignore such information. What’s the point of anyone posting a portfolio? Although we may discuss the same companies, we are all on different investment journeys, with our own individual financial goals with the differing risk profiles that entails.

Harry Hindsight

28th Apr '23

I'm just a simpleton. I read the comments if the company is in a sector of interest and then check the StockReport and and discussions, then if happy check the Chart.

The Share Price and technical analysis tells the story (generally, and tea leaves) - whatever anyone else says from subscribers, journalists to Mr Buffett, paid or otherwise. Unless its an IPO of course (feeding time in the shark pool).

The rest is knowledge only available to insiders (look for unusually large candles a few days before results or news).

Harry Hindsight

28th Apr '23

For the small capper's out there Fortitude Gold (PNK:FTCO) is actually a small gold miner that er makes profit (WOW, NO WAY, FAKE NEWS), maybe.

Not interested in cake (unless its enriched with uranium), electric vehicles (too expensive) basic hygiene and proteins (err).

But AGFX ok. But is poor value according to ChatSTOCKO (r).

140 resistance and 110 base with a nice 200dam tailwind but under a bit of 'cloud cover'.

130p should give a breakout signal (will check the tea leaves at that point).

PS. Don't listen to me I'm an idiot.

And IG would not let me buy or IKBR FTCO that is.

HandHeldGorgon

30th Apr '23

Shame about the people hounding Paul Hill. Keep up the good work Paul, I and many others appreciate your work/content!

mojomogoz

30th Apr '23

Good point. Agree

Leo and Mark are a good follow for method and education. Obvs don’t follow their lead on stocks…do your own work

Paul Hill

1st May '23

Many thanks Handheld for the very kind words.

For the time being though, I've reluctantly decided to go 'radio silent' - & so won't be posting any new articles on Stockopedia unless Ed gives it the all clear.

Frankly it causes far too much hassle.

Caper4

1st May '23

That’s a real shame Paul. Ignore the few brainless comments and be content that the silent majority love to listen to your podcasts.

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The markets are primed for a fall. Find out why here.

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About the Author

Paul Hill

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