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Archived articleThis is an archived article from 2023 - please note that any content within the article may be out of date.

@SRT on the cusp?


SRT Marine Systems is a company I know well. Many people have described it as a jam tomorrow company and the patchy record does lend credibility to the allegation. However, there are good reasons to believe that image is about to change. I first bought shares around 2010. Up until then the company was primarily a supplier of radios. Its name in those days was Software Radio Technology. My interest coincided with a change of direction when the company entered the AIS market.

AIS stands for Automatic Identification System. It is used by ships and smaller vessels to broadcast their presence to other vessels. It was originally conceived as a means of saving lives and applied initially only to very large ships. The SOLAS convention came into effect in 1980 making the use of AIS mandatory for certain categories of vessel on a Global basis by the International Marine Organisation.

AIS uses VHF radio frequencies so SRT had appropriate expertise to enter the market as it began to broaden into non mandatory classes of vessel. At first the devices, called transponders, were bulky and the size of a brick. SRT developed a much smaller chipset the size of a credit card which revolutionised the form factor of these boxes and cut their cost.

Since then, SRT has developed an even wider range of devices which use AIS and is now a market leading supplier. They design them, but outsource manufacture. They sell directly via their in-house brand em-trak and over 1000 dealers world wide. They also supply most of the well known OEM maritime equipment brands with products made and packaged to show the brand name and cosmetic changes and em-trak takes care not to undercut the branded versions. Despite this the em-trak profit margin is higher. They operate from a small industrial estate in Midsomer Norton, Somerset. Throughout my time as shareholder, the company has always been cost conscious, eschewing fancy offices. They are a very shareholder friendly, keen to respond to enquiries and regularly provide web casts to update on developments. I have attended most of the AGM’s during the time I have known the company.

Selling transponders, even as a market leader has not made for serious profits, particularly when, despite mandating the use of AIS in their waters, many countries simply failed in the enforcement. SRT’s prospects changed in 2013 with the purchase of GEOVS as reported here:

https://www.insidermedia.com/news/wales/100588-

GEOVS brought in a software system that could display vessels in real time. It had novel features that incorporated external factors like the state of the tide, wind speed, the local topography and the ability to visualise the terrain and other vessels. This system was the forerunner of today’s system offering which is beginning to make significant inroads around the world.

SRT now focuses its main sales effort on its systems offerings. These cover Fisheries management, Traffic management for port and waterways authorities and domain awareness for coast guards and security agencies. The systems are extremely sophisticated, fusing multiple data sources, e.g.from vessel AIS, radar, CCTV and satellites across an extended network.

Covid and supply chain difficulties aside, the main factor which has slowed the spread of vessel monitoring systems is complexity. Many countries have indicated that they wanted to install a system but experience has shown that they do not have a clear idea of what they require or the necessary budget to finance the project. It’s not just the system specification, equipment and installation that’s complex. Sites need to be identified, buildings and transmitter towers need to be built. Laws need to be passed so that requirements can be enforced. Staff need to be recruited and trained. Vessel owners and seamen need to be won over to new ways of operating and associated costs factored in. Dealing with governments throws up many hurdles. Various departments and agencies all want input and it can take several years from initial contact to a signed contract.

In 2015, Bahrain became the first significant installation of the SRT monitoring system. Small in terms of scope and cost it provided SRT with a working reference site which the customer was only to proud to display to its neighbours. Bahrain also provided many useful, early lessons. The most significant was that a system capable of showing the position of many thousands of vessels in real time presented operators with an overload of information. What they needed was a system that not only highlighted activity that required action but also automated that action. As a result, GEOVS can now detect suspicious activity, such as two boats coming together for the transfer of fish or simply a speeding boat. It automates the instruction to send personnel to investigate or simply to generate a speed warning to the boat’s captain. Many other unusual scenarios have now been built in and twice-yearly releases of the system add new functionality quickly, as it is developed.

A key USP of the SRT system is that the data it uses remains in the customer’s country under their own control. They are not beholding to a foreign power for access. Given the many potential friction points between nations, a small company based in Somerset does not pose a threat to anyone’s national security.

In 2018 shareholders initially rejoiced when BFAR, the Philippines Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources awarded SRT a large contract. This was to have been financed by a loan from France who expected a French company called CLS to win the contract. When SRT won the tender, the loan offer was withdrawn and the finance had to be internally budgeted. Five months later, SRT were re-awarded the £31m contract to initiate the biggest fisheries management system in the world. In 2023, much of this system is in place and operational. One of its many aims is to record and report fishermen’s catches as they happen so that they can be shown to be from a sustainable source as this significantly increases the value of the catch. In many countries, fish that has no provenance cannot be sold in quantity. In Japan, Tuna proven to have been caught legally is worth much more to the fisherman that caught it.

Now it is expected that the system will be extended to widen its scope and to increase the number of vessels being monitored.. Recently came reports that “the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) forged an agreement with the National Coast Watch Center (NCWC) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) on Tuesday, Jan. 24, to improve the monitoring of the country’s marine environment.”

Elsewhere, in January 2022, another Middle East Maritime Domain Awareness contract was awarded worth £40m. Whilst the customer requires SRT not to reveal their identity, observers assume it is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The customer is known to want to shorten the original timeframe of the project from three years to two and one must assume that this is part of a longer-term plan with additional phases in mind.

Back in 2016, Indonesia awarded SRT a large contract to create a MDM system worth $100m. In 2017, the contract was postponed citing budget issues and a project review. In this case SRT had been represented by a Swiss company acting as agents of the customer. The lack of direct contact with the end customer undoubtedly led to this situation and it has since fallen to SRT to rebuild mutual trust directly with the customer. Happily, the merits of SRT’s offering are still obvious and appear to be coming to fruition.

Evidence for this came recently at a defence exhibition in Indonesia where they proudly displayed their weaponry and capabilities. In addition, as shown by this You Tube video, the presenter says “we already have a surveillance system”. There is a clue as to who supplied that system – in the video at approx. 1 minute 21 seconds, a display screen showing the system also shows the words “powered by SRT “in the bottom left corner.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGZxdcgMOGA

Then in November 2022 SRT announced a small contract with a national coast guard. A recent picture on the SRT webs site shows a group of people in Jakarta being trained to use the SRT system.

https://srt-marine.com/gallery/#group-1

This recent development is just one of the reasons why I suggest SRT may be on the cusp of “producing the jam”.

Keen SRT watchers know that Indonesia has a budget of $180m for the development of a maritime surveillance system. The Rear Admiral in charge is quoted in the local news as saying:

The Maritime Security Agency ( Bakamla ) will build a national maritime monitoring system or National Maritime Surveillance System (NMSS) at 35 points in various parts of Indonesia. “So the plan is to have 35 points throughout Indonesia that will be installed with NMSS," said the Head of Bakamla RI Rear Admiral Aan Kurnia in a press release from the TNI Information Center, Friday (26/1/2023). Of the 35 points, Bakamla has prioritized the construction of the NMSS in Bengkalis Regency, Riau. "This year, Bengkalis Regency is included in the development priority program,"

"At least this year, we will build shelters. Then there are radars, long range cameras, and communication and information facilities," said Aan. Aan hopes that once the NMSS is built, it will be able to create jobs for the sons and daughters of Bengkalis. "Bakamla hopes that there will be sons and daughters of Bengkalis to join Bakamla and later we will place them at Bengkalis Station. It could also be at Bakamla Headquarters or on Bakamla ships,"

He talks about 35 points (locations) so it looks like a programme of incremental developments adding control centres sequentially. The central control centre which will be in Benkalis will occupy a large, 2 acre site. Momentum is clearly growing.

All of these system contracts are intended to generate long-term recurring revenues. The initial installation contract involves the supply of servers and software as well as a myriad of other items including transponders for large numbers of boats. Whilst some of the externally supplied hardware is relatively low margin, software is much higher margin since the costs of developing the system has already been incurred and is defrayed each time the system is sold.

There are also ongoing charges for new system releases and once a customer has installed the SRT system it is not going to change to a different supplier. Data is another chargeable item whether it is acquired from satellites or on vessel AIS transponders. Recurring revenue is the goal but first it is necessary to install the system.

One other item is worthy of a mention. For the last 18 months or so, SRT have been developing a new product for their range of transponders. The product called NEXUS was shown to most major marine electronics companies last year to establish their interest in adding it to their branded range and to allow time for them to plan for this. Details are sparse but it is clear that SRT believe NEXUS will be a major contributor to transponder revenues and will offer users a level of functionality and interoperability not seen before at a competitive price. In essence this will be a combined AIS/VHF radio but whilst that is not new, some aspects of its design will be. It is known that NEXUS will incorporate a technology called VDES. This is important because it is reckoned that about 47% of shipping travels beyond the range of AIS transponders. There is a growing demand for continuous connectivity, and two-way communication, often via satellite. AIS can receive satellite data but cannot reply. VDES has been designed to overcome this obstacle. A significant amount of R&D resource has been invested in NEXUS which is due to launch, possibly by mid-year 2023. The marine market reaction is eagerly awaited.

This SRT document from late 2021 covers many of the topics I have mentioned here. 

https://srt-marine.com/wp-cont...

Hopefully, this article has provided enough information to enable those who may have consigned SRT to the “jam tomorrow” bin, to re-evaluate the company.

SRT’s web site listing its products and other useful information is here:

https://srt-marine.com/product...

Disclaimer

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7 comments


Avatar for Monty9

A fantastic summary, thank you!

I too made an investment when they first started to do AIS systems.  I have been out and back in again at least once in the meantime (currently in).  For such a small company to succeed in national level pitches is always extremely hard.  Having perhaps the market leading technology might make it possible, and they have seen a degree of success in the early stages of the development of its market.  It is not yet a certainty imv, and the company could be taken out in an opportunistic bid (hopefully the ~45% held by a small number of private investors is strongly held).  But if they succeed in becoming one of the market leaders in this area, the potential for a £90 million market cap company is well beyond 10 bagger territory.   It would justify the long wait.

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Avatar for davidjhill

Yeah - great write up and as a shareholder has provided some snippets I wasn't aware of so thanks for that.

I think they do need to sign and deliver a couple of larger contracts in the short term though to properly re-rate. This year and next earnings should mean they are trading around 10* which appears cheap but not if that ends up as lumpy contracts with breakeven type revenue achieved in year 3. The key will be to smooth earnings forward - in an ideal world say 1 or 2 major contracts each year but with the previously delivered contracts generating increasing software licence ARR. Bring the transponders division into decent profitability and then we have a winner. If investors think that is happening the shares will trade on 15-20* so could double on a re-rate alone and obviously more if EPS is also growing.

I'm optimistic and having owned a business where the sales cycle can be long and tricky to navigate I understand the complexities involved but I'm still a little frustrated. I've held these for an eternity and Im not sure the price will ever smooth out to be a nice compound growth on my equity of 15%+ since inception which is my target, but I'm not going to sell now!

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Avatar for rwh3ue

David, happy to pass on information others find useful. Whilst software annual revenues will recur from past sales, I think there's more to gain from the data processing sales. It's impossible to discover the contract terms but Simon Tucker has spoken in the past about a charge per vessel and charging for data from satellites. Given the tens of thousands of boats ultimately likely to be covered by these Asian contracts this could be very lucrative. The Geovs system is designed to handle up to 200, 000 vessels at a time, I think. The Philippines has several hundred thousand fishing vessels, Indonesia is likely to  have similar numbers. 

The EU had a system some way back that used Inmarsat to track vessels and charged between $50 and $100 a month in air time. It was just too expensive so only the largest vessels found it affordable and beyond about 20,000 vessels the system could not cope.

SRT have taken an approach which will make it affordable for large number of vessels. I don't know what price is in the contract but a couple of hundred thousand boats at $1 per month would yield $2.5m in annual revenue. We can only speculate as to how much revenue will be forthcoming but my guess is that SRT are aiming for a significant figure.

So far as the profitability of the transponders division is concerned SRT do not as yet split it out in results. However, my guess is that the majority of SRT costs are now attributable to the Systems side notwithstanding NEXUS so given the upward trajectory of transponder sales (up 24% yoy as at last half year) I would not be surprised to find they are already earning their way. Staff numbers here are low and more expensive people needed on systems working remotely a lot of the time on site with customers.  

Hopefully it will not be too long before we get some clarity.



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Avatar for Effortless Cool

Thanks for a excellent write-up , rwh3ue.

I agree with you on the short-term potential for SRT Marine Systems (LON:SRT) , albeit my opinion is much less well-informed!

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Avatar for rwh3ue

Interesting RNS this morning which confirms the broad thrust of my original post.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

Clearly, the ink is not yet dry on the next major contract but as is explained, all the elements required to get underway are gradually falling into place.  For existing shareholders and potential investors patience is still needed but in the longer term I believe this company is likely to provide an ample reward.

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Avatar for rwh3ue

As expected, despite cynicism and doubts expressed elsewhere on this site, the LOI has turned into a contract for $180m. Yes it has taken a long time to come to fruition but it makes it abundantly clear that SRT have a world class system offering. This contract will provide revenues for many years to come in “aftersales”. 

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Avatar for rwh3ue

Yesterday’s news was all about the big contract with Indonesia but it’s far from the only game in town. It’s worth remembering that the Philippines have recently successfully installed an SRT system designed to support the fishing industry. That contract is nearing the end of the originally contracted elements but there is expected to be additional work, Now the Plippine Coast Guard are flexing their muscles in an increasingly assertive stance towards China over disputed territorial rights. This article makes clear that increased support from the USA is likely to lead to more work for SRT.

https://asiatimes.com/2023/05/...

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