Small Cap Value Report (Wed 7 August 2024) - MORE, GDWN, TPFG, SDG, FOUR

7th Aug by Paul Scott

80 comments 8504 reads

Good morning from Paul & Graham.

That's all we've got time for today, see you tomorrow! I want to circle back to Keller at some stage, but am too tired now.

FTSE 100 futures are showing we could be in for nice bounce today. Has this been a "flash crash" I wonder? Hope so, as I did some buying yesterday for 11 shares that had been on my watchlist, but were put on mid season sale earlier this week! After all, the idea is to buy low and sell high (BLASH), something that's easy to forget when caught up in the drama of a sudden sell-off.

Explanatory notes -

A quick reminder that we don’t recommend any shares. We aim to review trading updates & results of the day and offer our opinions on them as possible candidates for further research if they interest you. Our opinions will sometimes turn out to be right, and sometimes wrong, because it's anybody's guess what direction market sentiment will take & nobody can predict the future with certainty. We are analysing the company fundamentals, not trying to predict market sentiment.

We stick to companies that have issued news on the day, with market caps (usually) between £10m and £1bn. We usually avoid the smallest, and most speculative companies, and also avoid a few specialist sectors (e.g. natural resources, pharma/biotech, investment cos). Although if something is newsworthy and interesting, we'll try to comment on it. Please bear in mind the "list of companies reporting" is precisely that - it's not a to do list. We typically cover c.5 companies per day, with a particular emphasis on under/over expectations updates, and we follow the "most viewed" list of readers, so if you're collectively interested in a company, we'll try to cover it. Obviously with the resources available, we can't cover everything! Add you own comments if you see something interesting, and feel free to discuss anything shares-related in the comments.

A key assumption is that readers DYOR (do your own research), and make your own investment decisions. Reader comments are welcomed - please be civil, rational, and include the company name/ticker, otherwise people won't necessarily know what company you are referring to, if they are using unthreaded viewing of comments.

What does our colour-coding mean? Will it guarantee instant, easy riches? Sadly not! Share prices move up or down…

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shanklin100

7th Aug

Hi Paul

Re Goodwin (LON:GDWN), I must admit I laughed when I read

"I know we keep saying it’s expensive, and it keeps rising in price, but surely there has to come a point where people bank profits? What level would be too high? A PER of 40, 50, 60? Remember that it’s an engineering company, not a tech exponential growth story!"

Two reasons for this:

I agree that without some level of exponential growth its difficult to justify the current SP

I strongly suspect that Duvelco and AVD will deliver very strong exponential sales and profit growth, based on globally unique specialist R&D undertaken by Goodwin... ...with the other parts of the business also growing strongly going forward

Time will tell as to whether this happens or not.

Best wishes, Martin

garbetklb

Hi Turbo

Goodwin (LON:GDWN) - my largest holding too. I wasn't aware of any brokers covering the stock - wonder if you could point me in the right direction. They have a remarkably precise target price! Unfortunately, reminds me of the actuaries in my previous life - 3 decimal places, but frequently the number preceding the decimal point was wrong........

Cheers

Andy

Boon

If anyone has a reliable meltdown indicator to sell, I'd gladly double mortgage my house to buy one off you...

proffittpar

Hi Ken, thanks for response, maybe I am using in wrong context but I consider that with shorting mechanism and from what we saw on Monday when virtually all stocks were down - why is this when not all are affected by overseas developments surely, private investors get nervous and bale out and have no confidence in investing just my opinion. So I consider the Market Makers are just using any opportunity to drop the prices, suck small private investors into selling. IMO as you will appreciate but I have been investing for a long while now and back in the day you didn't get such crazy movements in shares (only when global crashes on significant days in the past) as you have done in the last few years.

drsanjb

That's very helpful Paul. Thank you! Would you consider posting your full portfolio with regular updates at all?

BenHazz

Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY)

Sarah J Maas books being banned in some US states. Could impact sales.

https://www.theguardian.com/bo...

Paul Scott

Great to have your input, thanks Rhomboid :-)

GDWN looks great. The only question is valuation.

I doubt we'll go back to VLG, as it's in line. And a pretty rubbish company.

Charles Mitchell

Thanks Ken- I have traded TCAP in the past successfully. Will have another look. Charles

Caper4

Surely to all intents and purposes Boohoo (LON:BOO) is close to oblivion . For anyone who bought at the 150-300 level it may as well go under . Fortunately I sold a while back but it was still by far my worst performing stock of the last 2 years or so.

Indeed . A ranking of just 8 does not exactly thrill me

TraderMark72

…. normally an incentive to get hold of copies.

Orval

Its one State (Utah, quelle surprise), not States, and only banned in public schools and libraries.

Rusty2

Does banning not increase sales?

Terrific article, thanks 1JAmes1n1

"That's very helpful Paul. Thank you! Would you consider posting your full portfolio with regular updates at all?"

In a word, no!

We've got quite enough on our plate with the existing workload. And, to be blunt, why should I? Do you demand access to my ear wax and hair cutting records too?

"TFI Friday? A fat finger error?"

I was wondering who would spot that! Initially a fat finger, but when I edited it, the devil in me left it in, to give u a chuckle! ;-)

Brothersinarms

Far more likely to sell more books from the publicity than losing the custom of Utah’s 140 public libraries who’ve already bought their copies and now have to destroy them.

Investment4Adam

As Michael Caine would say “you were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off” I do worry with some of the requests here (and the brilliant weekly podcasts) that you are (understandably) getting frayed with the work and imho daft requests. You are very open every day / each week. Regular readers / listeners know what your top 5 are & what you have bought. As you repeatedly say “no one cares”. I dont care what you, Harwood, Paul Hill, Musk, Taylor, Cockney et al buy. I do like to understand WHY. Then I can agree or bark in agreement / remorse. So please stop posting the “what” everyone. We are only interested in the “why”!!! Keep it up Paul and Graham - and remember you can never please everyone! (PS I bought #GMS yesterday but if I told you why I would have to kill you)

EdwardJW

9th Sep

4imprint (LON:FOUR) I bought too but I'm sat on a loss. Hopefully the 5000p mark acts as strong psychological support for buyers to step in.

Small Cap Value Report (Wed 7 August 2024) - MORE, GDWN, TPFG, SDG, FOUR

Explanatory notes -

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Paul Scott

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