Good morning from Paul!
Friday markets/macro summary
I started doing this last Friday, and people seemed to like it, so let's continue.
I’m not an expert, more a moderately educated layman, in economics, but I like to keep abreast of what’s going on, and the broad trends, to help inform my investing.
Halifax reported that UK house prices were up 4.7% year-on-year (the best rise since Nov 2022) - increasing evidence that the residential property market in the UK is recovering (although some mortgage rates went up, due to increased Gilt yields).
Florida hurricane sounds bad, but not as bad as initially feared. Seems to have had little effect on markets. Obviously hoping people will be OK (“stuff” can be replaced, but people cant), but I don’t think it’s something that UK investors need to be overly concerned with.
Moan of the week (potentially developing into a podcast rant for the coming weekend) - increasing numbers of companies are not stating if they are trading above/in line/below market expectations. That’s the whole point of trading updates, so filling them with other information, but omitting the key info is both annoying and counter-productive (as it makes investors suspicious that the PRs are trying to hide something, and undermines my trust in the company's management). That is a disgrace!
CityAM headline on Thu told us to prepare for a possible AIM sell-off (Peel Hunt reckons a 20-30% across the board sell-off is possible), as fears mount that the Budget might include an attack on AIM’s Inheritance Tax benefits, with £6bn in IHT funds potentially at risk of redemptions. We’re certainly seeing signs of strange price drops in some AIM shares, handing us some attractive buying opportunities in my view. Irrational market events like this are a great opportunity to put cash to work, in my view. It’s a question of being bold, selective, but also keeping some powder dry in my view, as most of us are not skilled traders who can time purchases at the exact low! So I’m holding my nerve but also have some cash ready to deploy if the market does go haywire. The best purchases are often the most uncomfortable!
Anecdotal evidence that some holders of SIPPs are selling shares in order to grab their 25% tax-free lump sum, following speculation that this might also be…
