Premier Oil (LON:PMO), the FTSE 250 exploration and production group, this morning reported that its Catcher East sidetrack well in the UK Central North Sea, had successfully encountered excellent quality oil bearing sandstones. The well (28/9-1Z) was drilled to a total depth of 5931ft measured depth and no oil water contact was encountered. Initial pressure data indicates a common pressure regime between Catcher East and the earlier Catcher discovery suggesting that they are likely to be part of a single accumulation. The discovery could be one of the largest of its type in the North Sea region for several years. Premier is the majority stakeholder in the Catcher licence, which is operated by Encore Oil (LON:EO.) and also involves Wintershall, Nautical Petroleum (LON:NPE) and Agora Oil & Gas.
It is understood that initial analysis indicates 82ft of net hydrocarbon pay over a gross interval of over 236ft. A core was taken in the main sand body which recovered 44ft of oil bearing sand. Well logs indicate average porosity of approximately 34%. The co-venturers have decided to drill an additional side-track (28/9-1 Catcher SW appraisal) to the south west of the earlier Catcher discovery well to assess any additional reservoir sands not encountered in the original Catcher well. This is expected to take approximately 15 days to complete. The results of the drilling programme will be integrated to determine the future development options for the Catcher discoveries and plans for further exploration activity on the block targeting other high potential prospects on the licence (including the Catcher North area). These prospects have been significantly de-risked by the current programme.
Simon Lockett, Premier’s chief executive, said: “We are delighted with the results of the Catcher drilling programme to date and, following the successful sidetrack, have upgraded our reserves estimate for the block to a range of 50-80 mbbls. We expect to move forward rapidly with plans for assessing the remaining exploration potential and determining the future development options. Catcher represents an important addition to our growing portfolio in the Central North Sea.”
Alan Booth, EnCore's chief executive Officer, added: "The results of this side-track have confirmed that Catcher and Catcher East are one contiguous accumulation. Initial analysis of the seismic data, now calibrated by drilling, suggests that block 28/9 could possibly contain a series of discoveries…
EnCore's initial scoping analysis indicates that the Catcher feature (including East and North) may contain Oil in Place of up to 300 mmbbls.
I've highlighted some of the more important words in this story. What this translates to is that "best case" oil in place is thought to be 300mn bbls.....which has perhaps a 10% probability. The "most likely" (50% probability....P50) number is likely to be in the 150mn bbl range.....
....and THEN they will probably only be able to recover 30-40% of that, once they have completed their analysis and further drilling (on East and North).
So the most likely figure for recoverable oil volumes (which will form the basis of a 2P reserves estimate in due course) is likely to be 50mn bbls or so (which is Premier's number)......
....so a very nice find for the North Sea, but not quite in the league implied by "The discovery could be one of the largest of its type in the North Sea region for several years" .......for example, Dana Western Isles development (of which they own 65% and which was formally known as East/West Rinnes, discovered in 2008) has a minimum of 65mn bbls of recoverable reserves, and I've no doubt there are others.
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