Petrofac a Minervini stock??

12th Jan '18 by vik2001

10 comments 4860 reads

To all the Minervini followers, is Petrofac (LON:PFC) in a stage 2 trend? or is it to early to tell?

Quality and Value is high, and momentum has started to increase. A little guidance to understand his methodology using this stock as a example would be great by the more informed of his followers

Petrofac Limited’s stock price is down 45% in the last year. The company continues to be hurt by the uncertainty which the SFO investigation brings hence the sp depression for several months.

With Petrofac having the capacity to win further contracts, its financial performance may remain strong in the near term. However, until more is known about the outcome of the SFO investigation, it could still be hurt further. but in the mean time is this stock about to break out?

thanks.

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About the Author

Vik2001

Premium Member

10 comments

HumourMe

13th Jan '18

Too early IMO. From recollection, he wants the 50 day sma to be above the rising 200 day sma for at least a month. Then a consolidation period, before buying on the breakout.

PhilHofGrowYourDough

13th Jan '18

He also looks for the 130d ma to be above the 200 day ma

willhampson

13th Jan '18

I think its too early to tell. Petrofac (LON:PFC) has historically tracked the price of oil pretty well so the current upward move is, I think, simply related to the current strength in oil prices (it just touched $70 for the first time in years). If you think oil prices will hold or have further to go, then I think the share price has further to go.

For me, however, I don't think a more permanent trend for Petrofac (LON:PFC) will be established until the SFO cloud is removed, or it is simply taken out (though I suspect interest may be held back until the former is dealt with). So all in, I view Petrofac (LON:PFC) as currently a simply play on oil prices. Personally, I think there currently better options on the market to get that exposure to oil prices, without the political exposure and heavy shorting action. Just my two cents and all the best!

AnonymousUser353071

13th Jan '18

Beside the said, the stock is still too far away from its 52-weeks-highest price which is something Minervini also has an eye on.

vik2001

13th Jan '18

ok thanks guys. I only just stared looking into Minievini style of investing and trying to learn more.

I been more trying to look for stocks that are value stocks, that havnt gone anywhere for a while and are early in the stages of breaking out. I identified NAHL (LON:NAH) as being one, which has been in a uptrend recently. I thought Petrofac could be another stock that is on the verge of possibly breaking out. Fenner (LON:FENR) is another stock which has broken out nicely for me buying in late December.

I opened a little fun portfolio in a very small account, just to see if I can catch stocks in a uptrend. I been looking at mostly value stocks where 50d ma is about to break the 200d ma. does anyone have better sugggestions to catch stocks like this. They would not be long term holds so to many fundamentals do not matter, I want to get stocks to make a 20% quick rise and move onto the next one. SO this is separate from my long term holdings portfolio.

HumourMe

13th Jan '18

Under tools| chart signals a 'golden cross' is what you describe (although the purest form of this requires both moving averages to be ascending). https://www.stockopedia.com/chart-signals/golden-cross-5178/5/

Or you could set up a screen where they are 'close' e.g. % 50 day ma / 200 day ma >97 and below 103 but that only captures 50/200 averages in the vicinity of each other (so close tracking is not distinguished from crossing or 'death cross' and at the moment you can't specify a rising 200 day sma - but you can add requirements for absolute price rises or certain % above low that filter out most of the false signals (assuming the signal actually 'works')).

gus 1065

13th Jan '18

If the link works, here is a screen that was put forward by another Stocko subscriber last year as a suggested Minervini-esque template (apologies, I can’t recall who).

https://www.stockopedia.com/screens/minervini-screen-march-2017-196602/?display=tables#display

I think it’s a reasonable representation of Minervini’s approach and have used it to good effect to identify some decent stocks for further review over the past year. Please DYOR etc..

If you use it as a checklist for Petrofac (LON:PFC) , you’ll see it passes 12 of the 17 criteria failing mainly on EPS upgrade performance and substantial shortfall from 52 week high (mainly a result of the sell off after the SFO announced its enquiry into the company).

Gus.

vik2001

13th Jan '18

thank you that's exactly what I was looking for. I didn't even realise golden cross signals were available on stocko till you just pointed it out. perfect. Its identified SKY and Styles & Wood as possible further breakouts, I will keep a eye on these.

smatthews1

13th Jan '18

Hi vik without pointing out the obvious, Have you considered this could be rising in line the price of oil? There's a few stocks at the minute which are oil and gas related, that have started to rise in line with it.

I have nothing against technical analysis, in fact I would be lost without it. but it's important to remember what fundamentals underpin stocks.

vik2001

13th Jan '18

that is true but my aim in the fun portfolio is to make a quick 15 to 20% and move on regardless of fundamentals . I just want to catch it in a quick uptrend as these are not long term holds.

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Petrofac a Minervini stock??

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Vik2001

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