No news anywhere on this very welcome but dramatic upwards price move ?
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No news anywhere on this very welcome but dramatic upwards price move ?
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I can think of two potential explanations but neither make any sense to me. First, Old Mutual disclosed a 5.84% holding after hours on Monday. This is actually the result of the Quilter demerger as the stake was previously reported under Quilter and coincided with Quilter disclosing a reduction in their stake to below the notifiable threshold. It may have been misinterpreted as a new shareholder acquiring a significant stake at prevailing market prices.
Second, Paragon Banking (LON:PAG) announced the acquisition of Titlestone, a lender to residential developers. Maybe people think MAB1 actually does lending and got excited by a bit of M&A.
Neither explanation makes any sense and both rely on the market being stupid which it usually isn't. Absent that, we're left with "more buyers than sellers."
Price movement may also be related to this article ( https://www.directorstalk.net/buyers-back-in-the-market-in-may/ ) which quotes Brian Murphy, Head of Lending at MAB as saying: "May appeared to be one of the best months so far this year for some regions, with members of the network reporting a marked increase in activity levels in Yorkshire, Scotland and the East and West Midlands, and even some conurbations in London began to see a little bit of life filter back to the market." The original source is this MAB publication ( https://mediaserver.responsesource.com/mediabank/48320/NMIJune18.pdf ) which appears to be published monthly.
The sale of Capital Private Finance in Autumn 2016 took MAB's London presence to about 6% of revenue which is disproportionately low.
I think you should look at the number of trades:
27 June 6
28 June 3
29 June 6
2 July 3
3 July 31
To me that suggests a tip somewhere.
Edit - post 2 above was made while I was writing this - whether some people use 'Directors Talk' as a tipsheet I know not but that article is dated yesterday.
I suspect this article in Daily Mail's This is Money may also have given a bump (could be wrong however).
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5855849/More-home-buyers-using-mortgage-broker-right-way-go.html