Hi
A newbee to this posting, can anyone help me with a reasonable equation for arriving at an intrinsic value??
Dave
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Hi
A newbee to this posting, can anyone help me with a reasonable equation for arriving at an intrinsic value??
Dave
I will pass your question to a friend of ours... chatGPT.... who responds:
...Certainly, there are several methods used to estimate the intrinsic value of a company's stock market price. One commonly used method is the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.
The DCF analysis estimates the present value of future cash flows that a company is expected to generate. The general formula for DCF analysis is as follows:
Intrinsic Value = Sum of (Cash flow in year n / (1+r)^n)
Where:
To use this formula, you would need to estimate the cash flows that the company is expected to generate in the future and the discount rate required by investors. The estimated cash flows can be based on historical performance, future growth projections, and other relevant factors. The discount rate can be estimated using the company's cost of capital, the risk-free rate, and other market-related factors.
Keep in mind that this is just one method for estimating the intrinsic value of a company's stock, and there are other factors to consider when evaluating a company's stock price, such as its financial health, competitive landscape, and market trends
The intrinsic value of a company is Present Value of all future cash flows.
So if you were going to make an investment in a company, you would want to look at the Net Present Value, (NPV) not the Present Value. As long as the NPV is >=0 then the investment is worth moving forward with.
Note that many people look at the Internal Rate of Return rather than NPV however this is a mistake unless you understand the mathematics (as the IRR can produce erroneous answers in some cases (multiple roots to polynomial equations)).
Share Price = Price earnings ratio x Earnings per share.
So I apply the above formula once for the end of the first year forecast, and then again for the end of the second year forecast. This is not straight forward because it requires a degree of judgement as to what PE ratio and EPS figures to use.
Then using the current date and the dates for the end of FY1 & FY2, I calculate what I expect the share price should be in 12 months from now.
This calculates what one might call an intrinsic value, in the sense that it does not take into account what the current market price is. The next stage of the process is to compare the expected price with the current market price.
I have tried using the Discounted Cash Flow method in the past, but eventually gave up on it because I found it too complicated.
You can calculate NPV in an Excel spreadsheet, there is a function for that.
If you want to play around with some simple examples then there are various websites allowing for that, this is the best one I know of...