Shortest month of the year and perhaps one of the busiest in a while - and that's without doing any trading. Instead I've leveraged SharePad to produce some detailed analysis of both Fever-Tree and Medica Group. It's been refreshing to get back to this kind of work and having the right tools has really helped here. I also managed to find time to host the first StockSlam of 2019 in Central London. While I haven't managed to write up the presentations yet I did get round to publishing this short note on Cake Box. Finally, as if that wasn't enough, I attended an equity analysis course in order to pick up some professional tips. With luck I'll be able to post my notes on this at the weekend.
Purchases
None.
Things I thought about buying (but didn't)
Fever-Tree: Before I began my detailed analysis of Fever-Tree I was pretty sure that I was going to buy some shares. They've done well for me in the past and might do so again. However once I'd established that growth rates in just about all regions had rolled over and that so much of the share price is supported by hopes around breaking the American market then I just couldn't pull the trigger. I still think that this is an excellent business with a sharp management team but these very same directors have sold a lot of stock recently. So if they're nervous with the price at current levels (and clearly don't see a bid for the whole company coming soon) then I think that it's sensible to follow their example.
Medica Group: This stock popped up on my radar last year, at a higher price, and the qualities which attracted me then still remain - namely an improving ROCE level (as profits have grown faster than capex) and a high level of cash generation. On the other hand I think that growth is structurally limited by the need to find and hire qualified radiologists while having broadly a single customer, the NHS, is a clear business risk. So I see Medica remaining a great company in its niche but I can't ever see it growing to become a £1bn operation.
Cake Box: As mentioned above I took a lightning look at Cake Box and there's a lot to like about this franchise…
