Deflated by 1st half of 2022, New List for 1st July 2022 - Top 10

Well, a disappointing 1st half performance for my top 10 picks, so I think we can honestly say there is just as much luck as judgment involved in selecting this top 10 list.  Still, this remains my preferred method for selecting and holding my portfolio. I console myself with dividend pay I can reinvest, cash on standby for a crash, and valuations that are still holding up well with each trading update.

2022 1st half performance, and new list for 2nd half -1st July 2022

This is for me personally to publish a list and compare performance which I can't manipulate post the event. Really no need for anyone to read further or comment.

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Red indicates position completely closed

Green indicates a new position being built

As Always DYOR

BSV

2nd of Jan 2022 - Supercharging returns deflated by second half by ranking portfolio holdings, New 1st JAN 2022 - Top 10

Well after enjoying 6 quarters of electrifying growth since 2020 (245% trough to peak), the portfolio for the 2nd half of 2022 finally stumbled, with a 16% pullback overall. My top 10 ranking still continues to perform better than the rest of the portfolio. (top 10 - 40.6% for 2021 compared to the overall performance of 26.6%). Anyway, I listed 2020/21 with performance and the top ten for 2nd Jan 2022. This is for me personally to publish a list and compare performance which I can't manipulate post the event. Really no need for anyone to read further or comment.

Past performance 2020/21

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List for 2022

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New to the portfolio are AIR and BWNG.

As always DYOR

BSV




1st July - Supercharging returns by ranking portfolio holdings, 1st July 2021 - Top 10

So I've now enjoyed 6 Quarters of excellent performance. I want to post the top 10 rankings before the start of the second half-year. Let's see if this outperformance continues. and if this is a process that works or is just dumb luck.

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About the Author

Bluesky Ventura

Premium Member

As a physicist working hard to understand the chaotic system such as the stock market and make the art of stocking picking a scientific process.

22 comments

GrahamScott

Outstanding returns - congratulations. Can you elaborate a little further? How are you determining rank position? Are you allocating funds percentage on each specific stock or by block ie top 10 ranked shares get 66% of the pot?

Reply
Bluesky Ventura

Its propriety scoring system based on a derivative from the Stockopedia stock ranking system,  my own analysis, and a couple of other factors I value,  such as dividends and volatility for over 250 shares.  High scores get highly ranked. It's a process that has taken about 3 years to get to the level of work I felt was needed to make better returns. So far returns have been better than expected.

The top 10 make up greater than 50% of the portfolio. Normally I start with a small position and add to it up to a maximum of 5% of new capital.  If a position gets to 15% of the portfolio or starts ranking below 20 I will consider selling the position. 

BSV

Reply
WarrantStar

Congratulations on your success! However, it appears to me that there is quite a  contradiction between your two statements   "I wanted to share the process with as many as possible" and "Its propriety scoring system" (which indicates that you will not fully share the process).  The only way that I can see that both statements might be valid at the same time, would be for you to publish the process to a restricted group of people, maybe for a fee. 

Also I think it would be good to be clear about the difference between 1) Sharing the process (ie how it works) and 2) Sharing the outcome of the process (ie which shares are selected)

Anyway, whatever you do, I wish you well with it. I'm just a bit of a stickler for clarity.

Reply
Bluesky Ventura

Hi WarrantStar, 

I think it reasonably evident what was intended to be shared, as it's in the title.  Ranking one's own portfolio, and allocating capital accordingly has really improved the performance of my portfolio as I only have a few good ideas.  Others should consider doing the same. 

Everything else I've shared is far more than I intended.  I've been petty open about how I score for the rankings, Stockopedia stock rankings, my own analysis, and a couple of other factors I value, such as dividends and volatility

Believing in DYOR, I would encourage you to create your own investment process.

So in answer to your question;Also I think it would be good to be clear about the difference between 1) Sharing the process (ie how it works) and 2) Sharing the outcome of the process (ie which shares are selected)

I'm sharing the one aspect of the process which I believe has supercharged performance.  

All the best for the future.

BSV

Reply
chillyhill1

Hi Bluesky,

Congratulations on your return but the only thing you've shared here is that you've got a more concentrated portfolio which is a common theme with all the top investors.   I'm afraid it's a pet hate of mine when people just basically post how well they've done over a period. I much prefer people to post why they like a particular share with their reasons or other constructive material which is helpful to other investors. 

Reply
Bluesky Ventura

Hi Chillyhill1, 

The intention is to share Ranking one's own portfolio, and allocating capital accordingly has really improved the performance of my portfolio as I only have a few good ideas. Others should consider doing the same. 

I have written about some of the companies above, and I've included links in the main text if they are of interest. 

BSV

Reply
Rusty2

"a more concentrated portfolio which is a common theme with all the top investors. "

Is that so? I know of, quite few top investors that have many holdings on the go.
Depends who you mean by top investors?

Reply
timarr

The intention is to share Ranking one's own portfolio, and allocating capital accordingly has really improved the performance of my portfolio as I only have a few good ideas. Others should consider doing the same.

Well yes, but without sharing the ranking mechanism it's all a bit generic.

For instance, I can rank my top stocks using astrology, but it doesn't mean I'll outperform:

The Astrologer's Fund: Always a Star Performance!

Although, frankly, there are times when Mystic Meg would be better at stock selection than I am.

timarr
Reply
WarrantStar

Bluesky Ventura

Thank you for your reply.  I strongly agree that anyone who is serious about investing should develop, improve & follow their own process. I have spent many years developing & improving my investment process. I am very cagey about revealing the details. But, interestingly enough, the final stage has some similarity to your final stage.  What I do  is 1) Put the share through my investigation process 2) Make  two lists for why I should buy the share & why I should not buy the share  3) By weighing up the two lists I decide upon my conviction level.  4) My conviction level determines the scale of my investment.

Reply
Bluesky Ventura

If one can read the stars they may well beat the market.  If they can rank the selection and allocate capital accordingly the performance could be supercharged. 

For what it's worth I believe there is some value in astrology, but it is based on Penrose's entanglement theory, for any theoretical physics out there. 

All the Best. 

BSV

Reply
Bluesky Ventura

Just posted the changes to the top 10 before the 2nd Half-year starts. 

Ip (LON:IPO) , De La Rue (LON:DLAR) , Gear4music Holdings (LON:G4M) and Card Factory (LON:CARD) leave the top 10. 

Tharisa (LON:THS), Aviva (LON:AV.) , Entain (LON:ENT)Ig Group (LON:IGG) enter the top 10..  (see list above for rankings

As always DYOR, this just a thought experiment for me, by posting the selection before the start of the 2nd half year.

BSV

Reply
Bluesky Ventura

WOW Entain (LON:ENT) trading update. 11% growth despite lockdowns. Most important has achieved 2nd place in the USA market for market share. Link to trading update below.


https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...

BSV

Reply
Bluesky Ventura

2nd of Jan list includes:


IGG

CMCX

AIR

CRL

BWNG

CAR

XPD

VOD

WYN

G4M

BSV

Reply
The Phoenix

Hi Bluesky

Out of interest did you manage to escape the 9-5 grind in full or part in the end ?

Best wishes for 2022

Andy

Reply
Bluesky Ventura

Hi Andy, 

Effectively working part-time. The company has provisions to buy additional holidays. I booked a few more days away to visit friends and family. I'm effectively working 4 days a week.

My other half has agreed on the conditions when I can invest full-time ( really invest part-time and enjoy the pleasures of life).

All the best for 2022. 

BSV

Reply
Bluesky Ventura

New top 10 list 1st of July 2022

IG group (LON:IGG)

Tharisa (LON:THS)

Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP)

Warpaint London (LON:W7L)

Synthomer (LON:SYNT)

CMC Markets (LON:CMCX)

N Brown (LON:BWNG)

Carclo (LON:CAR)

Xpediator (LON:XPD)

City of London Investment (LON:CLIG)

Reply
The Phoenix

Good to see you still here Blue Sky out of interest how have you been finding the last six months I seem to remember you were having stellar returns last three years but at the moment this is second worst period i can remember in twenty five years in markets.

Have you been still managing to outperform or getting spanked like the rest of us ?

Best Regards

Reply
DaviStoVest

If you go to the header, you will find BSV has detailed the (mostly poor) performance of his main holdings during the first half of 2022.  He also sets out the reset he proposes for the second half of the year.

You might have a different view (I do, in part at least) ... but BSV has laid his own thinking out for all to see.  I wish him good luck (and all the rest of us, of course).

Reply
PLS1nve5t

Not so sure of this - his original post is dated June 2021, I find this geezer too confusing to take any credible notice, however todays picks maybe interesting :-(

Reply
Bluesky Ventura

Hi Phoenix, 

When the tide goes out most of us suffer, and I'm too am enduring paper losses. I included a summary of the performance of each 1/2 year below to make it easier to understand.

2020 1st half: 15.08%

2020 2nd half: 46.86%

2021 1st half: 59.90%

2021 2nd half: -12.04%

2022 1st half: - 17.96%


All the best 


BSV

Reply
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