Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 9 April 2025) - TPFG Interview, BOOM, GMS, SAGA, CHH, PAGE, AGR, EPWN. TSTL, FLO

9th Apr by Graham Neary

39 comments 5848 reads

Good morning!

The latest set of US tariffs came into effect overnight. I believe that a 104% Chinese tariff came into effect in the last few hours. However, it looks like we might have a relatively quiet day in terms of political headlines. The FTSE is expected to open down 2%, while the S&P is down 1.6% overnight. Compared to what we've witnessed over the past week, these are rather gentle market movements!

12.40pm: it has been another tough day with the FTSE down 3.6% so it is now down by over 11% for the week. The S&P has already retreated c. 11% this week, and is currently set to open down by a further 1.3% today. The reality of tariffs, including a 104% Chinese tariff, is kicking in. We conclude the report here for now!

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Assura (LON:AGR) (£1.5bn)	Statement re. possible offer from Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) & recommended offer from KKR	Rejects the PHP proposal which was 0.3848 new PHP shares and 9.08p cash (worth c. 46.2p). AGR has issued a second RNS with details of a recommended cash offer from KKR of 49.4p per share.	PINK (Roland) [no section below] It’s still possible that PHP will make a winning offer for Assura. The deadline has been extended to 5 May. However, I suspect that KKR and Stonepeak’s buying power has secured this healthcare REIT, with an all-cash offer that’s in line with Assura’s last-reported NAV. That seems fair to me, overall.
Pagegroup (LON:PAGE) (£844m)	TU	SP down 2% Q1 gross profit -9.2% like-for-like, year-on-year, although most markets were “sequentially stable” vs. Q4. Both Permanent and Temporary were down, with Permanent (72% of the total) doing worst, down nearly 10%.All geographic regions doing very poorly (down 10%+) except for the Americas. Outlook uncertain. £15m charge to deliver £15m of cost savings. Net cash £54m. Given tariffs and resultant uncertainty, no forward-looking guidance is provided.	AMBER/RED (Graham) Difficult conditions for recruiters continue with Page group reporting another meaningful drop in gross profits amid “subdued levels of client and candidate confidence” which has been the case for some time. Does recruitment have a structural issue so that it cannot do well any more, even in periods of full employment? I’m starting to worry that this could be the case. I’m downgrading…

Name (Mkt Cap)

RNS

Summary

Our view (Author)

Assura (LON:AGR) (£1.5bn)

Statement re. possible offer from Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) & recommended offer from KKR

Rejects the PHP proposal which was 0.3848 new PHP shares and 9.08p cash (worth c. 46.2p). AGR has issued a second RNS with details of a recommended cash offer from KKR of 49.4p per share.

PINK (Roland) [no section below]
It’s still possible that PHP will make a winning offer for Assura. The deadline has been extended to 5 May.
However, I suspect that KKR and Stonepeak’s buying power has secured this healthcare REIT, with an all-cash offer that’s in line with Assura’s last-reported NAV. That seems fair to me, overall.

Pagegroup (LON:PAGE) (£844m)

SP down 2%
Q1 gross profit -9.2% like-for-like, year-on-year, although most markets were “sequentially stable” vs. Q4. Both Permanent and Temporary were down, with Permanent (72% of the total) doing worst, down nearly 10%.All geographic regions doing very poorly (down 10%+) except for the Americas.
Outlook uncertain. £15m charge to deliver £15m of cost savings. Net cash £54m. Given tariffs and resultant uncertainty, no forward-looking guidance is provided.

AMBER/RED (Graham)
Difficult conditions for recruiters continue with Page group reporting another meaningful drop in gross profits amid “subdued levels of client and candidate confidence” which has been the case for some time. Does recruitment have a structural issue so that it cannot do well any more, even in periods of full employment? I’m starting to worry that this could be the case. I’m downgrading…

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Tim Boucher

9th Apr

The result certainly looks that way - rising yields will certainly hit him where it hurts (along with the rest of the globe) - although the reason could equally be a completely rational decision to not allocate to (+ withdraw any existing $$ from) the US, as the country has gone bonkers.

The Phoenix

I did wonder the same topvest China hold about $700-$800 bil, Japan even more, by all counts a recent treasury auction has gone badly as even domestic buyers don't want to take them on in size preferring to hold cash.

Mocking global leaders the other night on stage won't be helping him either it will be interesting to see what kind of deal Japan get as the closest ally , if theirs is terrible it will be another leg down.

I agree with you though watching ten year yield is a must at present time, it would almost be pure comedy if it wasn't so serious with how bad the old boy is but there's a part of me thinking could he bring the whole system down.

I wouldn't put it past him to default on the $36 trillion the US owes.

jamesalastair

Chinese dumping. Bill Ackman said Lutnick was long UST and short US equities, so Lutnick called that half-wrong. Karma is a tricky old business. (Not that I am trying to imply these trades were put on before Trump's tariff tantrum of course).

The BoE holds USD740 billion. The Bank is probably buying more following the lead set by dear old Gordon's sale of our gold bullion at the bottom of the market. They will be next to worthless when the US decides all 10 year + duration UST will be zero coupon and redeemable at par in 100 years' time.

Long dated gilts are probably a good buy as I think the BoE will be forced to lower rates at some stage as the full extent of Trump's tariffs start to drive inflation down in the UK (and up in the US).

af20001

It depends what commentators you read.

I've seen one say that if it was China dumping U.S. treasuries, they would expect the dollar to fall as the Chinese convert the $ proceeds to Yuan or other currencies, which isn't happening.

Chrisfarrell21

Hello everybody,

Thought I'd chip in with a share I think will do well in the current circumstances - Plus500 (LON:PLUS) . I've just bought some more.

With the volatility of even just the past five / six trading days, I think they will have to increase their revenue and profit expectations for the year. Graham said the following in Feb:

"So the analysts covering PLUS are talking about 2025 being a year of calmer markets. Maybe this is a good thing? If volatility does pick up, it might be quite easy for PLUS to beat these forecasts. "

And as I was in the mood to indulge my confirmation biases, the chart has held up very well in the last few days.

As an aside, it's interesting to compare the charts of Plus500 (LON:PLUS) , CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) and IG group (LON:IGG), which should all do very well out of this period. I sold out of CMCX when they announced the abrupt departure of the CFO, which would help explain their dip, but not sure on IGG:

Cheers

Chris

BattleOfBrit

How? Gilts are denominated in Pounds Sterling, so if there is any possibility of default, they would quite simply print more GBP... rich countries, who borrow in their own currency do not have a problem. It's only a problem for small countries who borrow in USD/GBP/JPY/EUR etc.

Epitychia

Trade wars are not won by bankrupting your partners / customers.

I think that when this becomes obvious in a few months time Trump will default on US treasures held by foreigners. I hope the BOE sell theirs before this occurs.

Thats what worries me James they either need to get rid of him without somehow starting a civil war, or the alternative is they let him continue to run and I agree he could come up with something like you allude to re US bonds.

I hope I'm worrying over nothing but this idea does seem to be gaining traction he's talked about default before and given his distaste for pretty much everyone but himself it would be pretty much the ultimate ---- you to the world.

jonestheinvestor

Printing too much GBP would lead to the devaluing of GBP, which effectively would push up the cost of everything we import. You can't as a trading nation devalue your currency indefinitely, if it were that simple then we'd simply devalue our currency to effectively remove our debt. It would eventually be better just to default on the debt rather than take the hit of devaluation.

topvest

What a day in the markets. The S&P500 has just jumped c10% from its low of the day on the 90-day pause. Mr Trump is causing chaos. Anyway, its all the "Art of the deal" Trump style. At least Keir Starmer is in the queue for a deal, unlike the Chinese and possibly the EU. I'm not sure I can remember a more volatile time on the markets. Markets (equities and treasuries) are all over the place!

Whitbourne

Maybe not 'indefinitely' but the long-term record suggests devaluation has been seen as an attractive get-out-of-jail-free card for UK governments, at least since WW2. For most of the 19th century the rate was steady at $5 for £1 save for a spectacular blip during the Civil War.

Partially agree, which is why I think the probability of default is low. The drop in value of GBP is generally more representative of our relative drop in GDP over that time though, effectively GBP along with the amount in circulation represents our ability to compete in the world. Obviously the population of the US increased in that time, along with their ability to create, which lead to an increase in the value of their currency. It's a bit more complex than that, but effectively currency strength is a result of the ability of a country to provide goods or services that others want. Being the primary reserve currency also helps, which is another switch that happened in that time frame.

"Being the primary reserve currency also helps, which is another switch that happened in that time frame."

Yes - excellent point. Sadly the relative GDP decline doesn't look like stopping anytime soon...

10th Apr

I have no interest in a rambling argument. You're talking about multiple things here. The fact is that the UK has never defaulted on its debt. Doing so would end the ability to borrow in Sterling and would be the last straw. As a percentage of GDP, its borrowing is not particularly high compared to other countries, though the Brits love to obsess about these things. Estimating the probability of such a default is science fiction rather than investing.

I agree, borrowing isn't particularly high currently, it's the trajectory and deficit that cause issues in the long term. This leads to lack of market confidence and higher rates, which can lead to a debt spiral. Next time I'll be sure to keep it simple for people that find more than one thing too complicated :D

Sorry, I will have to ignore you. You simply have no idea what you are talking about. I'd hoped not to encounter people like you here and will simply remove you from my monitor.

You asked how the UK could default on gilts, so I responded. Perhaps you need to take a look in the mirror, but I'm quite happy to accept your block.

EDIT:

Here's a link from Fitch that explains that a country can default even if they control their own currency, and they very clearly state it's to do with the deficit they run and why they may actually default rather than continue printing money.

https://www.fitchratings.com/r...

Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 9 April 2025) - TPFG interview, BOOM, GMS, SAGA, CHH, PAGE, AGR, EPWN. TSTL, FLO

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Graham Neary

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