Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 26 Mar 2025) - UK CPI, ITH, EVOK, AVON, LUCE, VINO, VTY, TMG

26th Mar by Graham Neary

41 comments 5146 reads

Good morning!

Today's Agenda is now complete - much more relaxing than yesterday's deluge!

UK CPI

UK inflation came in at an annual rate of 2.8% this morning, down from 3% in January and below the expected result of 2.9%. However, it’s too soon to get the bunting out as many important prices are expected to rise in the coming months: on top of household utility bills and council tax increases, we still haven’t seen the real-world effect of higher labour costs arising from the changes to national insurance contributions.

At 12:30, after PMQs, we’ll have the Spring Statement from Rachel Reeves, which is expected to include a range of welfare cuts.

At 13:30, the Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its economic outlook, and at 14:30 it will hold a press conference. So there will be no shortage of economic and political news to chew on today.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Ithaca Energy (LON:ITH) (£2.3bn)	Full Year Results	$200m divi, taking full-year total to $500m. Profit after tax $153m (LY: $293m), due mainly to lower gas prices. 2025 production guidance: 105-115kboe/d. 2025 target is for a further $500m dividend, implying a possible 15% yield.	AMBER/GREEN (Roland) Today’s results suggest to me that Ithaca is doing exactly what it’s meant to do – generating a lot of cash from established North Sea oil and gas fields. The dividend looks affordable and sustainable to me, at least in the near term. Beyond 2030 I’d argue the outlook is unclear, but with a potential 15% yield on offer, this may not matter right now. I can’t be fully positive on a business like this, but I can see plenty to like.
Vistry (LON:VTY) (£2.1bn)	Full Year Results	Completions up 7% to 17,225, adj revenue up 7% to £4,329m. PBT down 35% to £263.5m, net debt up to £181m. No final dividend. Building safety remediation provision +£117m to £324m. Outlook: profit progress, bigger H2 weighting.	AMBER (Roland) The company’s partnership model is being held back by funding uncertainty for housing providers following the Autumn Budget. This is expected to clear as the year progresses, leading Vistry to warn that profits will be H2 weighted. With debt levels still elevated and a backlog of unsold stock, I think there’s some risk of a further downgrade in 2025. However, the medium-term…

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Graham Neary

26th Mar

Be careful!

Start with £100. If you gain 5% and then lose 5% you have £99.75.

Gain 10% and then lose 10% and you have £99.

Gain 50% and then lose 50% and you have £75.

Long-term returns from leveraged ETFs can be awful due to this problem. The person holding the physical ETF can be exactly where they started while the person with the leveraged ETF on the same underlying index can be down a significant amount. Also check out the fees they charge.

Misfit muser

yeah Balatro and playstack clearly been the standout winners over the past year. But wouldn't look past Oxygen, they've won their market, have extremely strong cohort figures of existing customers and are growing at 20%+ a year. They turned down £24m 18mths ago I think, but this could easily do £4m of PBT in the coming years, on 20x given quality of earnings (esp at a takeout multiple) and you have a £80m biz. From memory they own 75%, but goes a long way to derisking the mrt cap of £83m (net cash £7m on top).

If playstack can continue to deliver, maybe not at balatro levels but consistent and cash flow positive, with the big upside of mortal shell in FY26/27.

Then Satago, used to be the real jewel in the crown, has more potential that all of them, but needs to rebuild. Still Oxygen + Playstack worth well in excess of current market cap + free upside in Satago.

There was some selling post the last set of results as FY25 was a year of consolidation, but pretty clear they will beat what is in front of them, maybe maybe sign a big Satago deal - so some good catalysts on the way as well.

(Unsurprisingly I do hold!!)

bsharman

Thanks Graham, that makes sense now.

Mark Carter

"Team Wendy" combat helmets. Made me chuckle anyway. All very butch I'm sure.

Gung Ho

They’ve just issued a Trading Update - in line for FY 25

zho

I don't know if this adds to Graham's reply, but this is something I posted on ADVFN to a similar question:

Consider an index that loses 10% one day, and then gains 11.1% the next day to get back to where it started.

Suppose you have a 3X long on the index.

On the first day the value of a £100 position falls to £70.

On the second day it jumps to c. £93.30.

You've lost 6.7% of your stake even though the index is back where it started.

So even if an index doesn't move over a long period of time, if there's any day to day movement you can see that you're bound to lose money on a leveraged position held throughout the period.

eParo

Cavendish View:

En primeur opportunity

It takes time to make great wine and time to make great value. Virgin Wines UK (LON:VINO) is a direct-to-consumer (DTC) online specialist wine retailer with a growing and loyal customer base which displays a regular, repeat ordering pattern.

Management has laid out ambitious plans to grow the business to +£100m revenue and £7.3m of EBITDA (Adj.) by FY30. In this period, the company will need to add c.70,000 customers to its active base. The business is already picking up momentum after a period of consolidation helped by deep understanding of its target customer.

A new capital allocation plan supports the company’s growth plan. Surplus cash will be returned to shareholders through a share buyback programme.

Investors with an eye for recovery stories should buy this ‘en primeur’ investment opportunity now, as we believe its share price could double or triple over this period.

We initiate coverage of Virgin Wines with a 70p target price, implying 41% upside.

JimMcLad

Thanks Rusty and stehuk - that partially solves the problem. I can now see it under the stock report and My Markets but not under My Folios !! 8-(

Fire Juggler

Missed the THG (LON:THG) share issue yesterday. Interesting to see in The Times today the CEO's wife complaining that he hasn't taken a salary for while (whilst boarding a private jet. )

There seems to be a lot wrong here.

Also I visited a MyProtein store opposite The Manchester Art museum recently. I was intrigued by the queue coming out of the door.

Then realised it was for the Greggs next door. Make your own protein supplier joke here.

Rusty2

Have you changed the settings in both my markets and my folios?

Tommy H

Do they come with Fries?

Bouden54

Leveraged ETFs are designed for daily trading and will tend to perform very poorly over longer term due to imapct of compounding.

Joe Turner

It's an amazing company origin story. Worth looking up. V sad, amazing & inspiring all at same time.

Doooh ........... I have now, ta.

fred9566

any chance of looking at Everplay (LON:EVPL) ?

Monty Carlo

That maths applies regardless of it being a leveraged etf or not !?!

Where leveraged etfs are different is that you are not maintaining exposure to a constant number of units/shares in the underlying. The leverage is often reset every evening to the target ratio, and this process can result in you crystallising a loss (in adjustment/transaction costs, borrowing costs etc).

Put too simply - you start with 100 shares of exposure to underlying. Underlying goes down1% but 3x leverage makes it -3%. So overnight 3 and a bit shares get liquidated to cover your loss, plus a bit more to cover costs of adjusting the leverage overnight back to target 3x (so amount you borrow gets scaled back). Next day you start with 96.7 shares which leverage turns into 3 x 96.7 of exposure, rather than the 3 x 100 you started with....

If underlying returns to original start price (which is not the same as bouncing back the same %age) you are still underwater.

Harry Hindsight

My worst investment ever THG (LON:THG) . Keep hold of it on 'hope' (not a strategy) and just to remind me to look at every IPO with a critical perspective (hence London "killed the small golden goose") - investors in - founders out - basically.

There are others like some covid fighting toothpaste, and then clothing from a Swiss company - there are always suckers and I stand front and centre. Small punts so don't feel sorry - still its my money and I hate losing £1/$1 its a beer (was), pint of milk (was) etc etc.

I need to keep a note on why bought, even the emotional side - chart, fundamentals and yes like protein drinks, though a good thing.

Institutions and founders have far far more investment in it than I do, and suspect most of us, so it is in their interest to make it work.

Nobody goes to work to do a bad job. Believe in that and that is our hope in the crazy world.

ken mitchell

The reason why Thungela Resources (LON:TGA) share price has fallen heavily since the £17 peak in 2022 to just £4.60 should be obvious for anyone who holds it.

Look at this link, the charts in it, and the commentary on the coal price. It all speaks for itself, and investors here holding and moaning about the 70% Thungela Resources (LON:TGA) share price fall, should surely have bothered to try and find out why ages ago.

It’s simple. The spot coal price peaked around $400 in summer 2022. So did the Thungela Resources (LON:TGA) share price at over £17. Today the spot coal price fell to a multi year low $97. So is it really that surprising that Thungela Resources (LON:TGA) has also fallen 70%?

https://tradingeconomics.com/c...

It’s just as straightforward if now tempted to buy Thungela Resources (LON:TGA) . Check out the obvious basic (I.e the spot coal price) on threads like the one in this post. If/when at last there are clear signs of the coal price turning up, along with more positive commentary on it, then that could well be a good buy opportunity. Successful investors check out basics like updates from the Companies they hold.

To balance this comment; admittedly the Stockopedia 99 rating and exceptionally high quality and value marks along with it getting a “super stock” rating are very misleading. So best to use them as a starting point and not trust them too much. Presumably the Stockopedia marks don’t factor in the relentless fall in the coal price.

Don`t let the tail wag the dog

But Thungela Resources is not THG

Oops! Thanks for correcting my mistake and apologies for my now irrelevant post too.

Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 26 Mar 2025) - UK CPI, ITH, EVOK, AVON, LUCE, VINO, VTY, TMG

UK CPI

Companies Reporting

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Graham Neary

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