Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 8 April 2025) - BKS, IGP, IPX, RFX, GMS, TPFG, SAG, GHH, DFCH

8th Apr by Graham Neary

36 comments 5018 reads

Good morning,

The FTSE closed yesterday down 4.4% at 7700, having opened down by nearly 6%.

Today it is currently set to open up 2.2% at 7830.

The Vix - the volatility index - is at 5-year highs:

Many of the headlines today concern the potential for deals in relation to tariffs: the EU has offered Trump zero-for-zero tariffs on cars and industrial goods, but Trump also wants the EU to buy a large slug of American energy.

I remain naively optimistic that reasonable settlements can be reached before too long between the US and many countries. A new quote from Trump:

On Monday, asked whether his global tariffs were a strong-arm negotiation tactic or permanent, Trump said: "There can be permanent tariffs and there can also be negotiations, because there are things we need beyond tariffs."

New article: "It's tough out there - how our analysts are coping in 2025" - Megan, Keelan, Roland and myself discuss how we are getting on in this tricky year.

1.30pm: wrapping up the report there! We've had a nice bounce in UK markets (up over 2%) and the US is also set for a bright open, up around 3%. Let's hope for more of the same tomorrow! Cheers.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Unite (LON:UTG) (£3.9bn)	TU & Q1 fund valuations	75% sold for 25/26 vs 84% in prior year. “On track” for 4-5% rental growth and 97-98% occupancy.
JTC (LON:JTC) (£1.4bn)	Full Year Results	Rev +19%, adj PBT +17% to £47m. Net organic growth of 11.3%. “Good start” to the year.
Hilton Food (LON:HFG) (£764m)	Full Year Results	Rev +1.9%, vol up 4.4% due to input cost deflation. Op profit +14.8%. Current trading in line.
Alliance Pharma (LON:APH) (£347m)	Full Year Results	Rev -1%, adj PBT unch at £31.5m. Mixed performance among brands. 2025 trading in line.	PINK (under offer)
Equals (LON:EQLS) (£266m)	Final Results	Rev +38% to £132m, PBT -4% to £7.4m. Total transactions +47% to £18.2bn. Outlook: confident.
Property Franchise (LON:TPFG) (£259m)	Full Year Results	Rev +146% post BLV merger, +6% LFL. Adj EPS +7% to 31.7p. “Well positioned” for 2025.	GREEN (Graham) I've long rated this as a quality company and I don't think its quality has been diluted by recent acquisitions. If anything, I think it's competitive…

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fred9566

8th Apr

Property Franchise (LON:TPFG) exhibited and presented at Mello Derby last November and I bought into the company after my initial opinions were reinforced by a half hour conversation with Gareth Sample the CEO . A progressive dividend policy plus a capital light business model proved very compelling and although I am under water now following the recent turmoil it was one of the shares that was relatively unscathed relative to the other shares in my portfolio. The outstanding sentence in this mornings report is the cash generative nature of the business model and the forecast of more to come in 2025 .

*Cash conversion against earnings was 145% in 2024 (2023: 122%)."

I would be interested if Graham shared my optimism

eParo

UK wealth managers say enquiries from US-based investors worried by the actions of Donald Trump and his administration and seeking to move money from the country have risen markedly.

Rathbones, RBC Brewin Dolphin, Evelyn Partners and Schroders Cazenove told the Financial Times that more US clients were looking to move a greater portion of their wealth to the UK, while others had already done so.

https://archive.ph/3iyyF

way

The amount of people across the world who hate him plus the amount of elites with big money who hate him and will throw that money at it means we will find out if there is a scrap of truth to this or any conspiracy theory with him and musk et al. Anyone who has anything remotely credible the media will jump all over it.

Harry Hindsight

100% losers. Everyone loses. It’s winning more than losing the thing (60/40 or something). Conviction, courage, have fun and keep a bloody close eye.

jonno

Two portfolio companies reporting this morning. I haven't sold any shares in the present pandemonium. I have stuck to the process that has worked for me over a long time. I don't use stop losses, avoid overly indebted companies, invest in UK listed shares, predominantly small caps most of which, not by design are AiM listed. I like a dividend and where possible asset backing, although neither are sacrosanct.

Given the current boy in the sweet shop scenario created by depressed small cap prices over the last few years and more so now, I have modified my approach slightly by taking opening positions in several companies, previously I would ordinarily have bought a full size position.

Most recently I have bought Treatt (LON:TET) James Halstead (LON:JHD) Tracsis (LON:TRCS) Fuller Smith & Turner (LON:FSTA) and Wynnstay (LON:WYN) all of which I suspect are cheaper now. The difficulty of being fully invested is that one needs to sell to buy. I also managed to buy back a few Volex (LON:VLX) yesterday at the open using dividend income.

Of the 28 share portfolio, five or so have direct exposure to the USA. From memory MPAC (LON:MPAC) Avingtrans (LON:AVG) Zotefoams (LON:ZTF) Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY) , one could perhaps add Tracsis (LON:TRCS) and Card Factory (LON:CARD)

Back to today:

Ramsdens Holdings (LON:RFX) a good sized position across the family portfolios. No one likes a smart a*se, but its nice to be proved right occasionally. I posted after the previous update that I thought they would come in ahead of consensus, primarily based on the long term strength of the gold price.

Property Franchise (LON:TPFG) I was a previous holder of Belvoir and somewhat disappointed that its CEO, Dorian Gonsalves wasn't part of the management team of the enlarged group. However Gareth Samples has done a good job and the combination of management fees from lettings, estate agency and financial services appears a very balanced and attractive mix.

The portfolio is down around 12% since the start of the year.

I use Stockopedia posts as my investment diary and they are as much to remind myself of what I own and why as for general consumption.

All the best

yadi

US is no longer the safe investment heaven

Yesterday yield hike in US treasuries were starking. In a day of heavy equity falls the treasury fell too when you expect the reverse. The US is no longer the safe place for storing your wealth. This maybe what Jamie Diamond, the head of JP Morgan referred to as fly of capital from US.

ridavies

I have three shares that are doing particularly badly. Yes, that bad!

One is MPAC (LON:MPAC), the next is Spectra Systems (LON:SPSY) , and the third is Warpaint London (LON:W7L)

The first 2 are down around 30% since I bought them/topped them, up earlier this year. Warpaint has been a bigger stock holding for me for a long time, and the fall has been huge. I wont say how much, because yesterday it was increasing by the minute......and on what basis? Profit taking perhaps, panic certainly.

Starting with Warpaint, the first indication is 'made in China, big aspirations in the US, hit by big tariffs.' However, the US in 2023 accounted for less than 10% of total revenue, though frankly they would have hoped to be looking for far more from the huge US market in the future.

Well, maybe that wont be so easy, but there are still large opportunities in Europe, by far the most important market for the company. There will no doubt be opportunities to squeeze even better prices out of their Chines suppliers, and the company has shown its flexibility to change sourcing , although if it to Vietnam, that may be 'out of the frying pan into the fire' unless Vietnam achieves a deal with the Trump regime - certainly one of the 51 countries Trump has claimed has been in touch with the White House to strike a deal. If they do, in Warpaint favour too.

Then if the US is so important to the company, how many of the products on the US market, marketed by US companies, are manufactured in China anyway, and so they are in no better place than outside competitors like Warpaint, are they as far as tariffs are concerned? Maybe US retailers would be feeling more patriotic than last year, but realistically, would they? We will see.

Another reason for investor concern may be how well and quickly the Brand Archiitekts acquisition can be absorbed and put to work with the magic Warpaint management touch. I look forward to that. In the meantime, I am fully invested so can't invest more in the company for the moment....but I am clearly more hopeful than many who are taking the SP to new recent lows.

Comments from the cream of investors on this great reader group? I will return to MPAC (LON:MPAC) and Spectra Systems (LON:SPSY) later, though there has been a sharp bounce for Spectra Systems (LON:SPSY) this morning and a lesser improvement on MPAC (LON:MPAC), still over 30% down for mein less than 2 months.

Graham Neary

I'll be chatting to TPFG management later this morning fred, let me know if you have any questions you'd like me to put to them!

JohnDoe2378

Trump pushing mkts down, to buy assets at steal prices...wait for the u turn on tariffs soon!

My only concern is if housing transaction are slowing as this would reverberate throught the business

stehuk

I don't normally think about motives. I usually look at the likely effects of an action. But that thought had crossed my mind. Either way it's an act of economic agression against the rest of the world. To my mind the correct response is for the rest of the world to get together and respond with a strong defence against the aggression. From that perspective this should backfire on Trump and unfortunately the US.

So I've sold out of investment trusts I held which have significant US exposure, ETFs on the S&P 500 and even Alphabet which is a company I like a lot. I've got nothing left in the US and intend to redeploy my cash elsewhere soon. I don't trust Trump not to mess things up again, so even if he does u turn, I think it will be a long time before I consider investing in the US in the future. But I'm more optimistic about UK and the rest of the world.

tony axon

Morning Graham ,and Fred. Interesting what a muted reaction to this share , this morning. From stoko figs. they beat eps, and divi convincingly. As per Fred ,I see the fly in the ointment ,housing sales going forward ,especially as it is one of the govts 'big' growth policies . One glimmer of hope, is my daughter is FD for a local builder, sales figs have slowed the past year ,but reservations keep coming steadily. The real problem will be seen later this year when the chancellors business taxes start to bite ,is my belief . Simply because will many job expectations be cut ??? I will continue to hold unless metrics evaporate ,as the year progresses Tony

The Phoenix

This is the thing he's basically giving a massive --- you to allies who stood with the US through 911 and the world in general.

Journalists must be hand picked as no one seems to bring up the services surplus issue, yes you lost car manufacturing but you gained Google and Amazon etc.

I wonder if everyone threatened to dump US treasuries en masse what his reaction would be possibly try and freeze the holdings to stop it happening but it would send him one hell of a message.

My fave quote from the weekend "the world is in the hands of one man who doesn't know what he's doing"

55555

Is today a 'dead cat bounce'? I suspect it is. Since seriously investing in 2018, I've experienced every reason possible for a market to fall:

General election Conservative win

Brexit

Covid

Ukrainian war

General election again

Trump tariffs.

I can't think of one possible positive to match any of these negative market kickers and I keep thinking 'what next'.

Don't overlook Warpaint is still an expensive stock and probably overshot its peak valuation, hence the sharp fall over recent months.

Usually get a day or two of big moves up, then downtrend resumed, if that is what happens. Enjoy anyway!

Yep its been an incredibly tough last five years Covid in 2020, decent 2021, probably worst I can ever remember in 25 years in 2022, 2023 last three months decent, 2024 good year, 2025 terrible so far.

A bear market pretty much every other year jeez.

chelsea

Berenberg restated target price of £7.00 yesterday. seems aggressive but I guess that’s what makes a market

Buy an annuity and go to sleep.

The most powerful man on the planet does not know what he is doing.

The last incumbent was a puppet signing anything his 'advisers' put in front of him - so look at why US powerful not why they are wrong.

Scary stuff - no s**it.

Let's hope a plan. I was positive, now negative, but we are how many days into it - days, not weeks, not months. Things need to change so hopefully some world benefit - socialism was dead and sorry why keep reinventing it - we are animals get over it.

This site is to make money for me and my family - nothing else.

Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 8 April 2025) - BKS, IGP, IPX, RFX, GMS, TPFG, SAG, GHH, DFCH

Companies Reporting

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Graham Neary

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