Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 31 Dec): FXPO, WIZZ

30th Dec '24 by Megan Boxall

35 comments 3471 reads

Good morning and Happy New Years Eve!

Will the markets look to end the year on a high after what has been a pretty disappointing year on the domestic front...

... but an altogether more positive one overseas.

It's been quiet on the news front for the last few days, but we're still adding to our 12 stocks of Christmas (companies we're positive about heading into 2025):

Mark has also reviewed 2024 through the lens of a value investor. You can read that here ahead of the publication of his four stock picks for 2025.

Companies reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary
Wizz Air Holdings (LON:WIZZ) (£1.5bn)	Commercial agreement	Commercial support agreement with US aerospace group Pratt & Witney while aircraft remain grounded
Ferrexpo (LON:FXPO) (£615m)	Letter to shareholders	An emotional summary of the year from the perspective of a company operating out of Ukraine.
Netcall (LON:NET) (£180m)	Long term incentive plan	A total of 5.3m shares (3.2% of the total share capital) have been awarded to the CEO and CFO, exercisable from 30 December 2026 and subject to certain performance criteria.

Ferrexpo (LON:FXPO)

Down 1% to 102p (£615m) - Letter to shareholders

Ferrexpo’s exposure to Ukraine (its iron mines are all located there) made it one of the biggest winners from the election of Donald Trump in November. The shares have climbed steadily since the re-election of a president who vows to end the war with Russia. AD_4nXd7qG5edYKoiZVaJOBuOeNL9tDg0ZDAvL614svde1ZMbnl5je7nNcj1UCqqprt_yMxDFbDQ4ei08OAYk7RcxpliITws9K1lCjFEX82sor21BoxANOe3dtsp-QYHPw0xO15T2C-u?key=soqu4LvytmOMSBMuSXrRa8UD

Today’s end of year letter highlights the extent to which the company and its people are struggling with the ongoing geopolitical situation. Within the last few months another two members of staff have been killed while serving in the Armed Forces, taking the company’s total loss of life because of the war to 45. Lucio Genovese, executive chair, writes that the company will “continue to support our employees and local communities through the Ferrexpo Humanitarian Fund, as well as offer psychological support for returning veterans.”

Although the letter is mainly one of praise and pride for the Ukrainian people who have contributed to a strong recovery at Ferrexpo this year (which…

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Mark Carter

31st Dec '24

Since I've told you my biggest gainer for the year, it seems only fair that I tell everyone my biggest loser: Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) , down an eye-watering 44% over 1 year. Ouch.

I bought in March 2018 at 18p, sold half my holding in July 2021 at 98p, and retained half, now at about 42p. I wouldn't necessarily recommend it today, especially since its stock rank is only 60; but it is a low-cost producer, sitting on a tonne of cash, and has a PBV of 0.6. I'll stick it out for now.

ACounsell

... no end in sight!

I still hold, FWIW. It's on a fwd PE of 15.2, which isn't by any means excessive.

The thing about Ukraine is that I've heard just about every angle imaginable. Sorting fact from fiction (outright propaganda) is an exercise that I've largely given up on.

If you want to know what Putin thinks, listen to Putin himself. Yes, seriously. He'll tell you. So, I'm looking at a YT video from 1 day ago. with the subtitles "Putin isn't buying Trumps bold Ukraine proposal." "Ukraine's accession will never be acceptable."

It seems that Trump has offered a 10-20 year delay on Ukraine being considered for NATO (which we probably should have offered before the invasion). Putin has rejected this.

You have to remember that Trump has a lot of bluster. He may be a good negotiator, but remember, both NATO and Russia will have a team of expert negotiators. So I wouldn't count on Trump out-negotiating everyone else.

Sarah Paine is a professor of strategy and policy at the US Naval War College. Her analyses are the best you will ever hear. You can check her out on Youtube. This is what she said: Putin doesn't have a backout plan, he has a doubledown plan.

My view? The Russian economy will continue to tank and the US will continue to impose sanctions until Putin backs down, which he won't. It's the ordinary Russians that will suffer, of course. Putin will likely crack down harder on the oligarchy, who will continue to tow the party line or slip a little something into his cheerios.

Let's see how close to the truth I turn out to be.

donQ

A well deserved belated Santa rally - and of course it's only half day today... ;)

af20001

Regarding BAE Systems (LON:BA.) & other defence stocks, not sure it matters if the Russia-Ukraine war ends soon or not - the NATO equipment cupboards are bare by all accounts, so whatever happens they will need restocking. There are very vocal demands from various un-elected NATO/EU bureaucrats to increase defence spending significantly.

Russia produces approximately 3 times as many artillery shells as European members of NATO, produces hundreds of hypersonic missiles per year, has increased drone production by approximately x23 and generally has expanded military production massively in the last couple of years, all on a budget of about $130b, according to western media reports, which is a fraction of the combined NATO budget of >$1T.

NATO has a lot of catching up to do, which can only be achieved by an increase in spending. It was reported recently that the cost of manufacturing artillery shells in Europe has increased x4 in the last few years, so even an increase in spending doesn't necessarily result in increased production.

Where that money will come from is another matter.

john scott

I very much agree with you mark, on most points. I believe that the Putin era will not produce a lasting, trusting peace, they are in a corner with no credible way out.

Certainly not from USA I would think, unless Trump can do a deal for the Trump dynasty.

It's that huge problem of TIMING if you are not a long term holder. I am nearly 75 yo, so timing is everything (lol)

Yes agree but being a long term holder isn't foolproof either. Unfortunately I have mistakenly held GSK (LON:GSK) for 25 years and it is still valued at significantly less than cost! Even with dividends total return is also close to zero. To be fair though timing probably an issue here too as bought in November 1999!!

Surprisingly Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) has been one of my rare success stories in recent years though only because I exited before this years debacle. Was a little late to the party buying at the current price of 42p. However, sold three trances at 65.77p, 115.70p and finally 83.07p so pretty pleased with the result. My biggest gainer in 2024 was an Investment Trust Baillie Gifford Us Growth Trust (LON:USA) up close to 60% but I have had some inglorious failures in the Investment Trust sector - particularly in Renewables and Infrastructure which more than offset any gains from this holding. Went into too many investment trust income plays chasing yield. Then came the 'Truss budget', rampant inflation and the resultant rapid rise in interest rates which have proved disastrous for these sort of Investment Trusts and I failed to exit in time.

My worst individual equity in 2024 was a highly speculative, but thankfully small punt on ENGAGE XR Holdings (LON:EXR) down c. 75%. The Metaverse is clearly not taking off!

As I have had a particularly bad year on my single company holdings (exc. investment trusts which are worse!) I thought I would try a little thought experiment around Stockopedia's stock rank system (QVM). At the start of the year 16 shares in my portfolio (I hold about 30) had a stock rank of 80 or more. This subset returned a negative 8.5%!! In contrast if you had bought the 7 stocks that ended the year in the top ten of the FTSE100 index with a stock rank of 80 or more you would have returned a magnificent 68%. Not sure what this proves but given my stock picking ability even with Stockopedia's excellent data led system I might have been better with Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF GBP Dis (LON:VUKE) or similar. At least this would have picked up the good and bad and given a better overall result than my current individual equity portfolio. May be in the New Year it will be my portfolio that out performs!

gmtrader

I think you are incorrect about the Russian economy. GDP for Russia has been growing.

GAZ

Not in my portfolio!!

spmarriott

Hi New Investor - unfortunately from the RNS it looks like this is just another distribution in Specie rather than a sale to someone who actually wants to buy the shares. Frustrating I know but these will eventually clear, allowing a true picture of supply and demand to develop. I hold.

Silver Moon

May see a positive difference come Friday, think I'll wait and see.

Rhodie Jonners

But has that not occurred by taking on massive debt and soaring inflation? I could very easily be wrong but all the economic info I have seen point to a deeply unhappy populous with no food, no men to do the work and what is in the shops, they can’t afford. Doesn’t sound like a growing economy?

1st Jan

Never mind the GDP, African gold makes up the shortfall.

I hold BAE Systems (LON:BA., will top up whenever I'm able. The company has taken a lot of work on with distant completion dates and has increased debt considerably to manage this. I've learned Buffet's point the hard way by selling shares of companies I should never have sold.

The Phoenix

GM it has but the course they are on will end in disaster unless Trump gives them an out, interest rates are north of 20%, inflation just under ten, demographics crashing, most oil markets cut off other than China and India who are hoovering it up at cut prices, infra structure crumbling plus by all counts a lot of the oil infra structure was maintained by Western companies at the point it starts to go wrong not many Russians know how to repair it assuming they can even get the parts needed.

Recovery Plays One stock that just came to my attention via a random source is Vistry (LON:VTY) , the housebuilder. PBV of 0.57. That's one I've just put on my watchlist, waiting for signs of a momentum pickup.

Although, like I say, the All Share Index tab on the front page of Stocko is fertile ground for this.

Harry Hindsight

8th Feb

Thought Putin would be more a Weetabix man Post Holdings (NYQ:POST)

Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 31 Dec): FXPO, WIZZ

Companies reporting

Ferrexpo (LON:FXPO)

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Megan Boxall

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