Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 15 April 2025) - HFD, TBLD, BILN, BME, KOO, LIO, RNO, DLAR, RWA, IHP, EMAN, MXCT, MHA, SUS

15th Apr by Graham Neary

60 comments 5604 reads

Good morning! The FTSE finished up 2% yesterday and got back within the range where it spent most of last year:

The Aim All-Share Index remains in a state of total depression:

I've reached a point now in my own thinking where I don't know if the Aim Index is useful as a benchmark for anything - its performance has been that poor over the long-term! I'd rather use one of the FTSE Indexes instead.

1.10pm: we've run out of time for now - a remarkably busy day for announcements! Cheers.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Wise (LON:WISE) (£12.1bn)	Trading Update	FY25 vol +23% to £145bn, active cust +21% to 15.6m. Adj income +16% to £1.36bn. 20% PBT mgn.
B&M European Value Retail SA (LON:BME) (£3.0bn)	Trading Update	SP +3.5% FY25 rev +3.7%, adj EBITDA exp top half of guidance (£605-625m). LFL +ve in France, -ve in UK. News on CEO appointment expected “in coming weeks”.	AMBER/RED (Roland) [no section below] I’m pleased to see there are no further downgrades after February’s profit warning. But I remain concerned by apparent weakness in the core UK business, where LFL sales fell by 3.1% last year. With operating costs up by 6% over the same period, margins must surely be under pressure? In this context, the group’s plans to maintain a high rate of store openings looks a little risky to me. With the CEO departing on 30 April, I’m going to leave my mildly negative view unchanged ahead of June’s FY results.
Frasers (LON:FRAS) (£2.8bn)	Long-term strategic partnership with Accent Group	25yr agreement to launch Sports Direct in Aus/NZ. Frasers will fund with £29m Accent (ASX:AX1) share purchase.
Tate & Lyle (LON:TATE) (£2.4bn)	Integration Update & Pre-Close Statement	Integration of CP Kelco “on-track”, improved EBITDA margin. FY25 results exp in line with guidance.
Greatland Gold (LON:GGP) (£1.8bn)	Telfer Ore Reserve, Outlook and Havieron expansion	Telfer dual train extended through FY27 before Havieron in FY28. Exp avg 280-320koz/yr in 26/27.
Integrafin Holdings (LON:IHP) (£1.0bn)	Trading Update	Q2 25 net inflows of £1.2bn, 7.3% of opening FUD. Total FUD +8% YoY to £65.9bn. H1 group revenue is expected to rise by 9%…

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jamesalastair

15th Apr

Thx .... useful post

However, I am not convinced that 11% yield is locked-in as some of it (much of it/most of it?) will be option premiums from writing covered calls. That is now history.

InvestmentHunter

Surprised Next 15 (LON:NFG) did not make the cut for a write-up given the size, sector and interesting barometer for the US market

af20001

I think the most likely outcome for UK fund managers is a lot of consolidation, however this doesn't necessarily mean takeovers. A lot of Fund Managers are structured such that they bring in Investment Teams on a profit sharing basis - the company provides all the back office & infrastructure and in turn takes a healthy % of the management fees/performance fees. There's obviously a certain tie in period, but it's relatively easy for a team to up & leave or for a financial buy out of the investment team only. That's been the model of the last few places I've worked.

So a gradual picking off of the best performing teams is the most likely outcome over the next few years I reckon. Why pay for the under performing teams and the infrastructure you already have in place?

UK LISTED

M P Evans (LON:MPE) Ramsdens Holdings (LON:RFX) are worth a look. I hold M P Evans and recently purchased Ramsdens. Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) in the mining sector is also worth a look...commodities look generationally cheap. I also hold Piraeus Port Authority SA (ATH:PPA) - good long term performance, asset backed port authority with circa 5.5% dividend. This will not be everyone's cup of tea though - Greek Port serving Athens with Chinese shipping Company, Cosco, as a 67% shareholder. I also like London-listed Kazak bank Halyk Bank AO (LON:HSBK) who pay 14.1% dividend.

LISTED ON OTHER BOURSES
Outside the UK listed market, I like Argentinian agricultural and property company Cresud SACIF y A (NSQ:CRESY) who will pay around 8% this year and Brazilian O&G company Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (NYQ:PBR) who pay 18%. Lots of political risk with these.

BUT ...

I think Cresud SACIF y A (NSQ:CRESY) is well placed to benefit from soya bean sales to China as China is no longer buying soya from the US for obvious reasons; I really like their web-based agricultural marketplace for South America, and they are controlling shareholder in Irsa Inversiones y Representaciones SA (NYQ:IRS) which is a major player in the Buenos Aires property sector. They are ridiculously undervalued but any investment in Argentina will be via US-listed ADRs and will require a certain faith in Milei' economic progress.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (NYQ:PBR) has one of the lowest product cost profiles in the World and one of the best assets. I also think the Brazilian economy is at a trough and the Real is at an exchange rate low. Brazil is scarcely exposed to Trump's tariffs as it exports more to the US than it imports and, besides, moving forward China will be a much more important trade partner than the US. You just need to understand the Brazilian Government's prediction for meddling in the company and expect some volatility.

You have to also bear in mind I am older than your average Stocko customer and increasingly looking for income. Also, I have a strong predilection for real assets. What suits me and my personality/circle of competence might not be right for the next person.

One last observation: For the first time in a long time, I think the UK market is the cleanest pair of pants in the dirty laundry basket. Who would have thought, although of course a lot depends on what mischief Rachel from accounts can dream up next.

Tortoise investor

Re Everyman Media (LON:EMAN) I recently visited their cinema in Belsize Park. I recommend the film Flow to any lover of arthouse films!

Definitely a nice cinema to go to as a consumer but from a business perspective there are two odd things:

* It has a single screen which will obviously limit what it can show/what's of interest. The theatre is huge with 153 seats - maybe it was hard to structure the room otherwise but surely it would make more sense to have two smaller cinemas for this quieter part of north London. Flow was maybe 15% full at 6.30pm mid-week. Three front of house staff were serving food and drinks to us.

* Oddly it's only a 15 minute walk from Everyman Hampstead! Maybe they avoid showing the same film but they're surely just cannibalising business?

Just a single snapshot of one cinema but perhaps indicative of some of the wider problems with how the business is run?

SundayTrader

Thank you

The Scribe

I quite agree about your comment about the AIM Index. I think it's a busted flush personally. It's getting on for nearly 4 years since its peak, July 21, that I wouldn't even bother with it anymore. I don't. There are some good companies on it still, but they are few and far between.

Bouden54

I would agree that AIM is more or less useless as a comparator, and surprised there are still people who compare their performance against AIM. I tend to use the FTSE 250 as a rough gauge of what I should be beating within my UK equity portfolio.

portugull

Thank you planetx for your comments yesterday on Sanderson Design (LON:SDG)

Good to know you think they are "very cheap" I got my timing all wrong with this buy but I intend to hang on as maybe a bid wil surface given the value of the back catalogue in Wallpapers.

Best not to look at 3i as a private equity business - it's basically Action with a few other smaller companies thrown in. I also sold too early, although I think its looking overvalued now. I tend to value 3i with reference to Action's earnings (perhaps a 15 multiple), and for the other holdings I use NAV.

davidallen77

one for Ed what if he takes out the 300 lowest (rubbish) MC aim companies and see how that affects the stockranks?!

yadi

Mello 2025 is back

Mello is like Stocko AGM! The chairman, Ed Croft is there accompanied by the CFO and the board members : Graham, Roland, Megan and the rest (apologise if I miss some members). I hope Pul Scott attends.

You meet so many of the community there , Shame about the fact that I can not match the real names with their Pen names here! It would be nice if the nicknames are written on the budge!

iain1234

Ooops looks like Jarvis Securities (LON:JIM) are shutting up shop for £11mil - not sure if the sale includes the £5mil cash on the balance sheet?

Chris Davies

sorry new to all this. does anyone know if there is a way to find a list of companies rated green by the team in the last few months?

Andy Sav

Hard to know what to do. 58% on close. No guarantees we'll see any money on return of sale?

way

There's a link on the daily reports every now and then to a spreadsheet with them all on.

Edit:

Here: https://docs.google.com/spread...

Last updated Mid Feb.

Gag20806

Stockopedia/Graham - maybe if the spreadsheet was unlocked to editing, members could add the colours - the colours are very helpful seeing how the evolve over time

carmensfella

16th Apr

Maybe we should ask all those booking their tickets with the Stocko code to provide their online pen names to put on the badges.

Samsgrandad

They are selling the operating subsidiary jarvis investment .management. As I understand it just the customer list and portfolios will be transferred, no assets.

Graham Neary

Hi Gag, I'll get back onto this now and start bringing it back up to date. Cheers. G

Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 15 April 2025) - HFD, TBLD, BILN, BME, KOO, LIO, RNO, DLAR, RWA, IHP, EMAN, MXCT, MHA, SUS

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Graham Neary

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