Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 1 April 2025) - PEEL, SQZ, SAG, GNC, RNWH, TPK, PINT, PINE, CLI

1st Apr by Graham Neary

36 comments 4774 reads

Good morning! A special reminder to watch out for false announcements this morning.

Today's Agenda is complete, we think!

1pm: wrapping it up there, thanks everyone.

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Travis Perkins (LON:TPK) (£1.1bn)	Full Year Results	Rev -4.7% to 4,607m, with adj op profit -23% to £152m. Management blame price deflation and lower volumes. Outlook is for adj. operating profit to be “broadly flat” in FY25. This appears to be significantly below previous consensus forecasts.	BLACK (AMBER/RED) (Roland) Weak results were aided by some working capital inflows. However, today’s outlook statement appears to equate to a significant cut to previous expectations for FY25. Management believes macro conditions will have to improve to stimulate a recovery – hard to predict right now. In addition, the company is without a CEO, as September’s appointee has resigned due to ill health. I’m inclined to take a mildly negative view at this point as I’m not convinced the shares are especially cheap relative to today’s guidance.
Greencore (LON:GNC) (£747m)	TU	Strong Q2 revenue & vol growth, driven by new and existing customers. Good cost control has improved profitability. FY25 adj op profit to be ahead of expectations in the range £112-£115m.	GREEN (PINK) (Roland) [no section below] A short but positive update from Greencore this morning. The sandwich and ready meal producer says that “profit conversion” was better than expected in Q2, supporting an upgrade to full-year guidance. This situation is complicated slightly by GNC’s possible interest in acquiring BAKK (I hold). More broadly, GNC is a low-margin business that I’d not want to pay a high P/E multiple for. But earnings forecasts have trended higher over the last year and the P/E of 11 looks reasonable to me. The shares have Super Stock styling and I agree that a positive view makes sense.
Serica Energy (LON:SQZ) (£525m)	Full Year Results	Rev -21%, PBT -58% to $160m. Final div 10p. Triton exp complete June, FY prod 33-37kboepd.	AMBER/GREEN (PINK) (Roland - I hold) Today’s results show the expected shortfall in revenue and cash flow as a result of last year’s unscheduled outages. We now learn that the current Triton outage is expected to continue to the end of June. In the meantime, the final dividend has been cut to allow more flexibility for field development and M&A spending. I can see the logic in this, assuming that the…

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Silver Moon

1st Apr

According to Roland the 2024 tail has been wagging the dog:-)

eParo

Saga (LON:SAGA)

DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH RAISES SAGA TARGET TO 185 (154) PENCE - 'BUY'

Fcst PE 3.5 and PEG 0.2, mkt cap £175m

50d SMA crossed today. Above 200d SMA too

Bookings up 91% as retirees spend cash to avoid IHT

https://www.theguardian.com/mo...

Corporate debt refinanced in full. Ageas deal concluded on the insurance business. Results 9th April should be very good on the travel side imo.

DVB99

SQZ is ridiculously cheap imo, taking a medium to longer term view, once the operational issues are sorted

rmillaree

Travis Perkins (LON:TPK)

not saying its not bargain now - but the plenty of very obvious red flags are on top of a continuing reduction in excectations over the last 18 months - it doesnt paint a pretty picture.

If one wants to be fair looking at £HWDN - they also have downward trajectory ref expectation - i have howden as probably being the best run company of te listed bunch - so the fact they are struggling confirms that there is probably still excess capacity in the market - perhaps one or tow of the bigger players need to leave the scene.

I would quite happily pay premium for howden (15 * pe compared to 11) over travis pekin but not convinced either has reach the end ref downgrades in expectations.

I think Eurocell (LON:ECEL) and Epwin (LON:EPWN) - seem to be doing better - perhaps they concentrate better on their niches - with regard to delivering compared to pearlier romises - perhaps thats simply doing the more cautious sensible thing of not promising growth in earnings when there is little evidence that the growth in earnings is anything other than a future projection.

Chrisfarrell21

Peel Hunt (LON:PEEL)

In commenting on Peel Hunt, I actually want to comment on Cavendish (LON:CAV), or rather try a little comparison. Peel didn't mention any IPO activity in the year they were reporting on, which is to 31 March (very prompt TU btw). They only said:

"Against a backdrop of continuing slow market conditions, we have an encouraging pipeline of investment banking transactions across both M&A and IPOs. A number of announced M&A transactions are expected to complete in the first quarter of our new financial year."

No mention of specific IPOs upcoming. Whereas, we know that Cavendish completed 2 small IPOs already (one in Dec, Amcomri (LON:AMCO), and one in Feb, RC Fornax (LON:RCFX)), and has the bigger MHA IPO lined up for sometime soon (no date announced), bigger than the previous two by about ten times.

This would point to Cavendish being more appealing to potential IPO candidates than Peel, therefore being the better bet between the two. Although the tangible assets point Graham makes is a strong point for Peel.

I think there will be an update from Cavendish this week, which could give a real boost to the shares. I already have a small holding, and as tempted as I am to have a punt before the TU, I'm not going to. Been there too many times where it's not worked out as planned.

Cheers

Chris

carmensfella

The US trade commission have contacted the #Mello2025 team advising us that as we don't have any investment companies from the States at #Mello2025 there will be a 60% tariff added to tickets sold to US registered investors

Any Investors living in the States and coming to the show and having a UK address do use it to save money

boringchess

The update gave clarity on a number of things, from bad news that was already known (now we have clarity on the impact and timelines)

Imo it is a very well run company that has faced some challenges and handled them well. The proposed reverse acquisition to harvest tax losses is another sign of a savvy management team.

Serica is very cheap on a free cash flow basis, underloved right now, but very well run. A good combination for the patient investor.

rwh3ue

That's a good one David, especially on April 1st.

Boon

Thanks for this! I hold Cavendish (LON:CAV) and also noted the two IPOs already out the door... your most reminded me to quickly check how they've done. Looks... OK. No "pop" but trading at IPO price or thereabouts.

What really needs to happen is an IPO with a big pop on day one, or within the first 30 days... get investors excited about IPOs, which then feeds into greater appetite for institutions to support the float... and therefore more companies finding it attractive to IPO... that virtuous cycle is so dead at the moment.

Bouden54

Pantheon Infrastructure (LON:PINT) agree that this looks quite interesting on the current discount. The only reason I don't hold is that 3i Infrastructure (LON:3IN) is on only a slightly lower discount, but given its much longer and very impressive track record I would argue this is actually the better value of the two. I would certainly add PINT if it drops back a few per cent, as it tends to do every so often for no apparent reason.

Douglas1971

I would need a lot of convincing (He) hasn’t people who have set up shorts to benefit from this mess. He’s far too clever too not benefit.

The Phoenix

Thanks Charles

This comment is under review

Thanks for the commentary on Pantheon Infrastructure (LON:PINT) and for those who requested it - new to me but initially looks interesting. Will take a bit of a dive as have some cash freed up from selling Warehouse Reit (LON:WHR) (and still sitting on some cash anyway from exiting all US positions in Feb)

bohenie

Any thoughts out there about the IPO coming later this week for Quantum Base Holdings ?

Good spot. It looks a tiddler, but the more the merrier. I would guess the upturn starts small and then hopefully accelerates in both size and volume.

Seems to be aiming for £5-6m total raise. Cavendish (LON:CAV) is the broker, a company called Strand Hanson is the nomad. So Cavendish should get a nice fee.

Monty Carlo

Alphawave IP (LON:AWE) in play.

Talk this morning of ARM having taken a look, and Qualcomm have confirmed they are considering an offer.

Hasn't sent the shares anywhere near their 410p IPO price back in 2021 though.....

ken mitchell

Last year Cavendish (LON:CAV) issued a trading update on April 4th. Good chance if there is one that it will be positive including for reasons you covered. I couldn’t resist adding a few today. Fingers crossed.

OldSchool05

Agreed re 3i Infrastructure (LON:3IN) , it has a superb long term record.

Produced an impressive pre-close update yesterday including a significant reduction in gearing following realisations and distributions from its holdings.

I like 3i Infrastructure (LON:3IN) as they have strategy which focuses on small number of assets in arenas with strong growth, and the experience to add value through period of ownership.

way

Don't you just love it when you come across an old alert on a stock and think Jesus I was hoping there.. Just come across one for Rolls-Royce Holdings (LON:RR.) to alert when drops below 214p. Not sure what the plan was but it would appear I've missed that boat. ... Had to laugh.

Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 1 April 2025) - PEEL, SQZ, SAG, GNC, RNWH, TPK, PINT, PINE, CLI

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Graham Neary

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