2nd Apr by Graham Neary

53 comments 4872 reads

Good morning! Today's Agenda is ready.

"Liberation Day": President Trump has announced a 10% universal duty on all goods brought into the US, plus further tariffs on 60 countries designed to equalise trade imbalances between the US and those nations.

Tariffs go into effect at 1 minute past midnight on April 5th.

Some of the special tariffs on particular countries/groups:

China 34% - the total tariff here is now 54%.
EU 20%
India 27%
Japan 24%
Pakistan 30%
Sri Lanka 44%
Switzerland 32%
Taiwan 32%
Vietnam 46%

The blue chip Eurozone index, the STOXX 50, is down 2%. The FTSE is down 1.2%. No special tariff has been applied to the UK.

1pm: wrapping this up here, another clean sweep. However, the markets remain in the red with the STOXX 50 now down nearly 3% and the FTSE down 1.6%. Let's see if it calms down tomorrow! Cheers.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Assura (LON:AGR) (£1.5bn)	Possible offer from Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP). Mix of shares and cash.	Implied offer value 46.2p (including a normal dividend). Premium of 23.5% to the undisturbed price. AGR’s last-reported NAV was 49.4p per share on 30 Sep 24.	PINK (Roland) [no section below] Assura is now in receipt of two possible offers but no firm offers. The KKR-led proposal of 10 March was for 49.4p per share in cash, matching NAV, so appears the fairest offer for shareholders. Note that the AGR Board has not yet granted an extension to the deadline for a firm offer from PHP. The current deadlines are 11 Apr (KKR) and 7 Apr (PHP). It may be that AGR will reject the PHP offer as inferior to KKR, but with due diligence by KKR presumably ongoing, AGR’s board may want to hedge their bets to try and ensure they secure an offer.
Currys (LON:CURY) (£1.0bn)	Profits expected to be above previous guidance	“Continued positive” LFL sales growth in the UK&I and Nordics. With <5 weeks until y/e adj PBT is now expected to be c.£160m (prev. £145-155m). A “strong net cash position” is expected at year end. FY update due 21 May 25.	AMBER/GREEN (Roland) [no section below] A very brief but positive update from Currys today ahead of the company’s FY update in May – when we will take a closer look. For now, we know that the momentum reported in January has…

Name (Mkt Cap)

RNS

Summary

Our view (Author)

Assura (LON:AGR) (£1.5bn)

Possible offer from Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP). Mix of shares and cash.

Implied offer value 46.2p (including a normal dividend). Premium of 23.5% to the undisturbed price. AGR’s last-reported NAV was 49.4p per share on 30 Sep 24.

PINK (Roland) [no section below]
Assura is now in receipt of two possible offers but no firm offers. The KKR-led proposal of 10 March was for 49.4p per share in cash, matching NAV, so appears the fairest offer for shareholders.
Note that the AGR Board has not yet granted an extension to the deadline for a firm offer from PHP. The current deadlines are 11 Apr (KKR) and 7 Apr (PHP). It may be that AGR will reject the PHP offer as inferior to KKR, but with due diligence by KKR presumably ongoing, AGR’s board may want to hedge their bets to try and ensure they secure an offer.

Currys (LON:CURY) (£1.0bn)

Profits expected to be above previous guidance

“Continued positive” LFL sales growth in the UK&I and Nordics. With <5 weeks until y/e adj PBT is now expected to be c.£160m (prev. £145-155m). A “strong net cash position” is expected at year end. FY update due 21 May 25.

AMBER/GREEN (Roland) [no section below]
A very brief but positive update from Currys today ahead of the company’s FY update in May – when we will take a closer look. For now, we know that the momentum reported in January has…

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The first of a limited edition of 24-carat Welsh gold coins

Unsaid is how many will comprise the limited edition. In my own jaded view a few at this price will keep the lights on for a while. It has been a long journey for Alba what with licences having to be won for this and that and everything else, I should have listened to my own advice re gold miners: if it isn't getting it out of the ground and selling some then avoid, just like I did re ScotGold. Though I guess that were I a young man with assets I would go for this coin.

grout123

3rd Apr

When everyone starts to head to the exit, few investments are safe

The Phoenix

Mind you short to medium dated Gov/Corporate bonds should be doing ok as yields dropping across the curve today.

Brilliant Leader

Help it make sense Tommy? This is a decent explainer that I posted on Twitter/X earlier. It also contains a link to the original long form essay by Stephen Miran of Hudson Bay Capital https://think.ing.com/articles...

topvest

I am a holder in Assura (LON:AGR) and Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) and I would support a merger. The issue I suppose is the LTV ratio if there is 9p in cash. Anyway, I think the resultant company would have a clear #1 position. The sector needs more GP surgeries in the long-term. We don't want to sell out to private equity on this board by the looks of things.

JASVFS

46% tariffs on Vietnam which could affect their plans with Nike for a new manufacturing facility there perhaps GAZ, we probably won't have to wait long to find out. We hold.

Only just noticed your reply to GAZ bsharman -- you'd covered it.

way

Need to do this here. Mainly because of the damage it is doing to UK retailers, but also in a world where we are so hell bent on hitting net zero how can we possibly justify flying in cheap clothing package by package. Suppose it doesn't count tho to our emissions targets so that's fine, not like pollution in one country affects the entire planet. Carry on, nothing to see here.

Talking trade and eat it bsharman, I wonder why Trump forget to mention America runs a Services trade surplus with the world in general, this would justify those countries imposing a 34% tariff on the US. Hat tip to BBC's economic expert on that one.

Silver Moon

Neutral StockAlba Mineral Resources (LON:ALBA) , for those goldbugs interested in its progress (I sold out a couple of weeks ago) and may be following the auction of the first Welsh gold commemorative which ends to day at 5pm. Current bid is £16,00 for the one-ouncer which was minted from gold found in the ancient spoil heaps.

1oz Welsh gold coin from Clogau-St David's Gold Mine

spmarriott

Thanks for flagging. I don’t know the company other than reading a few recent RNS reports, but I presume no US exposure here?

ChrisW

May i say congratulations to anyone who bought Imperial Brands (LON:IMB) one year ago.

It has now in total returns given a significantly higher return than any of the Magnificent 7 and it's still on a single figure p/e.

Value and the ability to wait, always good in investing!!!

Hi Phoenix, I think it’s most likely to be down to the Uk Government removing the cap on payments for using the services of private hospitals.

portugull

Graham last wrote about Vertu Motors (LON:VTU) on 7th February.

The Company closed down its BMW Branch at Barnstaple in North Devon last Friday 28th March and also the Dorchester Dorset Branch a few weeks back. A real sign of the problems in the Motor Industry.

Douglas1971

Imperial Brands (LON:IMB) I sold out in 2023. Really good work from those who bought a year ago and stuck by it and yes its still cheap!!

Harry Hindsight

Perhaps the chainsaw will be turned on the Motability scheme. One in five new cars. A taxpayer funded BMW does wonders for depression.

Thanks for your input, volume doesn't seem much in excess of the norm.

NeilS

Zotefoams (LON:ZTF) Most of Nike’s production (biggest customer) is in ‘Nam which is getting crucified by Trump. Ironically, I read last week that Vietnam might be spared as orange man is involved in a $1.5 bn leisure development there.

Discodave4

Hi Tommy, was looking to buy a gold ETC today but I’m assuming there is now some jitters about the possibility that interest rates may now go up following Trumps tariffs, thus bond yields increase and then as is the norm the price of gold drops.

Coins make great gifts. You pay for the collectible (semi-numastic) value over a gold bar. A Welsh con or one with a monarch may have extra intrinsic value but complex.
A word of warning - do not get them delivered to your house.

intuitive6191

A number of factors influence the price of Gold, one of which is the inverse relationship with the dollar. If the dollar falls it is cheaper for other currencies to buy gold.

President Trump has just tanked the dollar, if the fall continues then this might be a positive factor for the price of gold.

I would expect inflation to hit 4.5% in the UK towards the end of 2025. Hard to call interest rates but I would not be surprised if they rise in 2026. Who knows ?

The world is quite unstable at the moment and investors will be looking for a safe haven. At the moment Gold is as good a play as any.

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 3 April 2025) - "Liberation Day", DFCH Interview, MWE, CURY, MOTR, BIG, AGR/PHP, MOON, APTD, XLM, COG

Companies Reporting

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About the Author

Graham Neary

53 comments

1oz Welsh gold coin from Clogau-St David's Gold Mine

The first of a limited edition of 24-carat Welsh gold coins

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