Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 14 April 2025) - ARB, WG., POLR, ASHM, CNC, KNOS, GGP, CER, SRB

14th Apr by Graham Neary

44 comments 5403 reads

Good morning! The FTSE is set to open up by nearly 2% this morning, above 8100.

12.40pm: thanks for your input everyone, I'll wrap up the report there. A pleasant start to the week!

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Greatland Gold (LON:GGP) (£1.78bn)	March 2025 Quarterly Activities Report	90,172oz at AISC of A$2,126/oz. FY25 Guidance (7 months of full production): 196-210k oz. Broker Canaccord has left EPS forecasts unchanged today, suggesting this performance is in line with expectations.	AMBER/RED (Roland) [no section below] Today’s quarterly update seems to suggest GGP is making good progress with its strategy. Gold recovery levels are higher than budgeted in the pre-acquisition plan, contributing to higher production. At the same time, record gold prices are providing operating leverage, resulting in strong cash generation. However, earnings forecasts are unchanged and are expected to be broadly flat in FY26 due to further dilution. With no established track record of production and gold already at record highs, GGP shares look expensive to me on c.30x earnings. My impression is that near-term upside might depend on the gold price – I can see some risk of a correction if gold weakens. I am not convinced the stock offers value at current levels and share the algorithm’s view that this could be a momentum trap.
Ashmore (LON:ASHM) (£953m)	Trading Statement	SP down 6% Q3: AuM falls 5% to $46.2bn, positive investment performance with $3.9bn of net outflows.	GREEN (Graham) I would have downgraded this to AMBER/GREEN today on the back of some large redemptions, if not for its exceptionally strong balance sheet with c. £700m of tangible assets (Dec 2024) vs a current market cap of <£900m. EPS estimates are trending lower but I think the balance sheet should be increasingly influential on the share price from here.
Kainos (LON:KNOS) (£784m)	Trading Update	Solid Q4. Full year in line (adj. PBT £64.1 - 68.2m. Robust backlog and pipeline.	AMBER (Graham) [no section below] After a major profit warning last year, the market is perhaps breathing a sigh of relief that this update is in line. In their Workday Products division, they now have an ARR of £72m, targeting £100m by 2026 and £200m by 2030. However, I’d be reluctant to value this “expertise” ARR as I would value pure software ARR. As the stock continues to trade at a moderately high earnings multiple (PER…

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Ned Kelly

14th Apr

Rockwoods investment horizon is usually quoted as 3-5 years

Silver Moon

Fair enough sparkler, I had already thought of adding my dividend payments to my holding of Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) so I'm hoping the share price remains low long enough for this to happen.

Snazzytime

hi Graham,

Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR)

Thanks for the write up today.

Just one point to add re the forecast dividend of 46p for FY'26. Bearing in mind the 27% reduction in Equity Development f/c EPS for FY'26 from 49.3p to 35.9p there must be a high probability of a dividend cut in FY'26. The current yield is looking unsustainable at 12.6% in light of the revised forecasts.

Snazzy

homosap

NAHLNAHL (LON:NAH) Does anyone know why NAHL has fallen 10% today against a generally buoyant market? Stockopedia shows the one broker as indication a strong sell. I can’t see any recent RNS to trigger the fall.

Graham Neary

Thanks for that, Snazzy!

rhomboid1

Concurrent Technologies (LON:CNC) I agree ….especially so as mgt are well paid

…and on top of basic pay & sizeable bonuses there’s significant options in play

Personally I feel for the size of the business remuneration is inappropriate…& mgt are not aligned to any downside risks ….

Watchdog

Concurrent Technologies (LON:CNC) . Thanks for pointing this out rhomboid1. So the Executive Directors awarded themselves a 50% pay rise in 2023 and, as if that weren't enough, some huge share options too. Looks like they've got their fingers in the sweetie jar. Time for me to sell I think.

Bouden54

POLR They've got plenty of cash so dividend should be safe for a couple of years, but probably likely to be cut at some point if earnings don't recover.

OzzieTom

Kainos (LON:KNOS) . Hi Graham. Maybe I am misunderstanding your comment above when referring to the Kainos ARR in the Workday products division as 'expertise' income. They have a Workday services division which is for services and a Workday products division which is for an expanding range of software products developed by Kainos which allow Workday clients to perform functions such as testing and auditing Workday changes. These are either sold by Kainos or partners and now also by Workday as part of their signed agreement. I understand this revenue to be true software ARR and I believe the jewel in the Kainos crown going forward.

charlie51

GGP. Whilst I agree your view on WG sparkler I differ on the gold producers. The outlook statements and positioning of any company in this sector could well be of meaningful interest to many at a time when a position in gold, in whatever form, looks to be affording effective cover against the erratic, unpredictable and extraordinary actions emanating from Washington just now.

bohenie

Hunting (LON:HTG) - Interesting piece in The Sunday Times yesterday about activist investor OASIS pestering Hunting to return capital to shareholders. May account for the small rise in SP today

https://www.thetimes.com/artic...

Yep - Ive put Concurrent Technologies (LON:CNC) on the Naughty step - same as Clarkson (LON:CKN) !

yadi

discussion on Gold miners

I do hold four gold miners, including Serabi, and would appreciate the coverage , time allowing.

Will Marsh

In respect of GGP I think their is still a bull case in advance of the ASX listing. Also, on a 2 year view as production ramps up the share does not seem so expensive. Good jurisdiction with decent production. 200,000 oz is probably going to generate more than the projected $520m for yr 25 revenue? at over ($3,000 oz).

portugull

Sanderson Design (LON:SDG) up 15% today to 46p. I hold.

Seems very cheap and Stockopedia rank the stock at 98 in Value terms.

Results out on 30th April. I would welcome opinions. Massive fall in last 9 months over 60%.

planetx

SDG very cheap

But a CEO who is not credible in tough markets .

And a disgraceful renumeration committee and management combine to reward themselves and mot shareholders

Really needs an activist investor to stop the nonsense biut Lisa Montague and tram are really not up to scratch

Will rise when the tide rises but zero to do with overpaid , over incentivised. Management tnat lack integrity and honesty for their lack of ability in tough markets .

All a bit happy clappy

Harry Hindsight

I think Mr Neary is being polite with Kainos (LON:KNOS). Died 09.2024, consolidated for a while then the knife kept falling. I don't know why - suggest maybe AI risk something cleverer will "eat its lunch" and the market agrees (and so do I). I hold and underwater from a story told long ago when younger and read the news today oh boy.

I will be looking to dump at the earliest opportunity - it may/will do well long term but too bored looking at the 'red'. Sorry.

Any anyway the "chart tells the story" from people that know more than some small punter.

Lochinver

Sanderson Design (LON:SDG) Thanks for this Plantex. Have missed your ‘calling a spade a spade ‘ comments of late. Far too much of this kind of thing going on. We need more spade calling !

Similarly, see below for the comment on Concurrent Technologies (LON:CNC) directors renumeration and share incentives ( the latter largely not their money on the line - even if share price plunges, they still get them for free pretty well)

Similar to situation at Anpario (LON:ANP)

When I read Buffets book, one of his key investment drivers was “for who's benefit is the company being run for : management or owners “ ?

You could ask this question of so many of these small, AIM businesses . Maybe this is another reason why this part of the market is doomed !

Possibly. My point was that Graham, I believe is incorrectly regarding the software ARR in the products division as 'expertise' revenue and so, questioning it's sustainability.

15th Apr

I might edit/correct my statement above to reflect this, thanks OzzieTom!

Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 14 April 2025) - ARB, WG., POLR, ASHM, CNC, KNOS, GGP, CER, SRB

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Graham Neary

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