Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 10 Mar 2025) - CAPD, ZTF, DATA, CKN, APH, AGR, MCON

10th Mar by Graham Neary

59 comments 5891 reads

Good morning!

On Friday afternoon we published The Week Ahead including the economic calendar and the company reporting schedule for this week.

Today's Agenda is now complete.

1.30pm: out of time for today, thank you.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) (£2.42bn)	Annual Financial Report	Software-focused private equity trust. 10.4% NAVps growth. 13% discount moves to 2% premium.
Renewables Infrastructure (LON:TRIG) (£1.8bn)	Completion of German Offshore Wind Sell Down	Sold 15.2% stake in Gode One at 9% above book. €100m received & used to reduce RCF to £228m.
GlobalData (LON:DATA) (£1.49bn)	Full Year Results	Results in line. Underlying rev growth 4%. PBT +32% (£54.9m). “Robust” outlook, high visibility.	AMBER (Graham) This is likely to be a high-quality business with strong prospects but that's reflected in an already-high valuation. The accounts are complex and may remain so as management focus on their M&A strategy. I'd like to be more positive but am most comfortable with a neutral stance at this time.
Clarkson (LON:CKN) (£1.36bn)	Preliminary Results	Adj. PBT +6% to £115m. Adj. net cash £216m. Outlook: markets have softened. Market uncertainty.	AMBER (Roland holds) Today’s record 2024 results contrast with a more subdued outlook that has seen broker Panmure cut its estimates for 2025 and 2026. Uncertain prospects for the year ahead mean I’m taking a neutral view now, but I expect Clarkson’s market leadership and proven ability to navigate market cycles to endure over time.
Assura (LON:AGR) (£1.3bn)	Possible cash offer	KKR has increased its possible cash offer to 49.4p per share, equivalent to 100% of 30/9 NAV.	PINK (Graham) Well done to the Assura board for holding out until they received a bid at tangible NAV or higher. They were also offered the chance to merge with Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP, underlining the attractiveness of their portfolio. Over to KKR now to firm up their bid, and then Assura shareholders can decide if they wish to cash out.
Alliance Pharma (LON:APH) (£338m)	Final increased recommended cash offer	The buyers have made a final cash offer of 64.75p per share, recommended by the board.	PINK (Roland) [no section below] Today’s improved and final cash offer from buyer DBAY is a 3.6% increase on the 62.5p recommended to shareholders on 10 Jan 25. This increase is the result of “feedback from Alliance shareholders”. We…

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gmtrader

10th Mar

That was meant to be £1.9m. Capita (LON:CPI)

Dam. I really need to buy some glasses. £190k!!

Mark Carter

CKN was a stock that Nick Train was bullish on last month. I think it was a new holding for him. Not the first time that a stock he was bullish on blew up soon after he discussed it.

Lefty99

Yep, a few more thousand and I will be negative 10% since start of the year. Rightly or wrongly I continue to keep buying.

Tortoise investor

Thanks for the Mincon (LON:MCON) write up Graham. One other point: the major shareholder Patrick Purcell owns 56% of the company. Looking at the 2023 annual report he was 86 in December '23...

I'm not experienced enough to know what generally happens in these situations. Is IHT applicable if he passes onto a family member (if he can do that and depending on any rules in Ireland where I assume he is based with the company) or is it more likely that he might sell his shares at a discount to an interested institution? Appreciate there might be a takeover opportunity too.

Douglas1971

Rolls-Royce Holdings (LON:RR.) I hold. I agree with Rusty2. This may be profit taking, its had a good run and well received announcement recently. Hold on tight to RR.

JohnDoe2378

Anything other than ahead gets smashed currently

Looks like Whitehall still selling down at Synectics (LON:SNX)

So frustrating, same thing happening at many other small/mid caps.

ISAallowance

To be fair, 3 attempts to get it right was about in line with what it usually takes Capita to get something right.

Lincoln Green Imp

Hello FREng and Rusty. Yes, you can get the Mail tips on their app, 'This is MONEY.' It is a good one.

RichardK

Anyone know why Tracsis (LON:TRCS) (I hold) is up about 14% today on no apparent news? Was it tipped somewhere?

Richard

ezlifeme

Hi Richard - It might have been the 2 Paul's here 2 days ago (Paul S. being recently of this parish so to speak)

Ah....thank you. the power they have to move prices.

The Scribe

That has been going on for the last 3 years, with no end in sight.

WTT

I’m also wondering the same, it’s been hammered and I’ve no idea why

ridavies

To see the computer. or just the keyboard?

ken mitchell

Assura (LON:AGR) shareholders have done well getting a bid at full NAV, though as Graham pointed out that NAV figure is from last September and NAV may well be higher now.

For any who don’t know this, and don’t hold any of them, the Investment Trust REITS sector is seeing quite frequent bids. Already 3 I held have fallen to bids, along with others I didn’t, and Warehouse Reit (LON:WHR) which I bought and posted on recently at 75p has now received an indicative all cash offer at 110.5p (reduced to 109p because it excludes the next dividend). That’s too far below NAV at 127.5p, AND as with Assura (LON:AGR) that NAV figure is from last September so could well be higher now. The bidder has to declare firm intention by March 31st. imo 110p has little chance of succeeding and it seems the market agrees as the share price is only 99p and so well below that indicative bid price. But an offer above around 115p could succeed.

The Warehouse Reit (LON:WHR) discount to NAV is still a wide 23% so despite missing the easy gain from 75p buyers now have an each way bet. I.e good chance of a bid and perhaps a new bidder appearing and sound buy case on fundamentals anyway. But if there’s no bid the obvious risk of the share price falling again for a time, which if convinced by the investment case would be a very good buy opportunity.

If only we could know which ones will appeal most to bidders! Two that just might be are issuing Results this week Care REIT (LON:CRT) and Supermarket Income REIT (LON:SUPR) .

Timarr posted on the Investment Trust thread here that he thought Care REIT (LON:CRT) (Results on Wednesday) an unlikely target, but the 27% discount means there’s a chance. Supermarket Income REIT (LON:SUPR) at 73p has just bounced 10% from the recent multi year low and was up a bit today, and on a discount of 20% looks a bargain. It will be a surprise if their Results tomorrow shows that’s wrong.

Others on big discounts include:-

Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SERE) 36% discount. EBOX in the same Commercial Property REIT sector was on a similar discount and fell to a bid, but some way below NAV.

Target Healthcare Reit (LON:THRL) discount is 27%.

Social Housing REIT (LON:SOHO) is on a huge 56% discount, partly reflecting the quality but it’s also taken a hit thanks to the shambles at another in the sector, HOME REIT.

Life Science Reit (LON:LABS) is also on a big 56% discount.

A further plus point for REITS in general is that they are holding up very well and even going up on down days like today, helped by them reporting improving NAVs, and the current sector bids.

REITS and many other Investment Trusts get plenty of coverage on the Investment Trust threads here:-

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

lol probably both.

Gray Woods

11th Mar

"Inflexion is a mid-market private equity firm that invested over £400m in Globaldata’s largest business, its Healthcare division.

Globaldata is still the majority owner of this division but Inflexion now has 60%. The division was valued at £1.1 billion according to the terms of the deal."

Hi Graham, this doesn't seem to make sense, is there a typo in this, I'm on my phone so can't check the report right now. Surely Globaldata has the 60% ownership of the division if they are the majority owner still, not Inflexion? Also, if Inflexion invested £400m, and it was valued at £1.1 billion, surely that would mean they have less than 40%?

murrb

#MPAC I suspect it may be connected with the issuance of new shares at £4 to insti and retail investors a few months back so instis selling some of their holding right down to £4 are still turning a profit

Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 10 Mar 2025) - CAPD, ZTF, DATA, CKN, APH, AGR, MCON

Companies Reporting

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Graham Neary

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