Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 25 April 2025) - PIN, EVOK, AGFX, OMG, MCG, REC

Fri 6:03am by Graham Neary

67 comments 4782 reads

Good morning! We've reached the end of this four-day week.

I see that the S&P 500 is now only down by 5% year-to-date. A couple of weeks ago, it was down 15%. I'll chalk this up as a win for buy-and-hold!

President Trump has said that the current 145% tariff on China "will come down substantially - but won't be zero". I have my fingers crossed for a major U-turn by Trump, under pressure from many of his own supporters.

We are all done for the week, have a pleasant weekend!

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
WPP (LON:WPP) (£6.0bn)	Trading Update	Guidance reiterated. Q1 revenue less pass-through costs -2.7% LfL. Full-year guidance flat to -2%.
Pantheon International (LON:PIN) (£1.26bn)	Monthly Performance Update	£20m of share buybacks so far, £50m allocated. NAV per share 501.2p, down 0.5% for the month.	GREEN (Graham holds) There's a small drop in NAV per share caused by currency movements. I've become a huge fan of this in recent months and am open to the idea of adding more.
Mobico (LON:MCG) (£362m)	Proposed Sale of North America School Bus	SP down 41% Upfront net proceeds £275-290m. Earn-out up to $70m. FY24 adj. op profit at lower end of guidance.	RED (Graham) [no section below] We haven't looked at this since November and unfortunately it has gone off the rails today. There is a mild profit warning on adjusted profits ("lower end of guidance"), a further warning that there will be "a significant statutory loss" for the numbers that aren't helped by adjustments, and a disappointing sale of the School Bus business vs. analyst estimates. £275-290m will be received for deleveraging but the outstanding debt pile was nearly £1bn as of the June 2024 interim results. Superficially this stock is cheap against EBITDA and adjusted earnings, but real profitability has been very difficult for the company to achieve ever since the Covid era. Given the dismal track record in recent years and the apparent continuation of this record, I'll slap this with a RED colour for the time being.
Evoke (LON:EVOK) (£216m)	Trading Update	Q1 adj. EBITDA significantly up y/y. Last 12 months adj. EBITDA >£330m, in line with guidance.	RED (Graham holds) The market is pricing in an equity raise and I don't disagree that this may be required. Evoke's debts start to mature in 2027 and then…

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bohenie

Fri 6:33pm

Yes agree thanks Charles - did some rummaging round this afternoon and decided PIN 3 year performance simply doesn't stack up - OCI has also suffered but much better and frankly I prefer the management style at OCI but will now take a look at HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) also before a decision

Monty Carlo

Fri 7:09pm

I've just done 4 sets of Bed & ISA transactions in some accounts at Interactive Investor. Instructed late morning yesterday, they were done by close of play today, which I view as acceptable.

Last year I seem to recall they took longer, but I may have made the requests closer to the start of the new tax yr. I do agree that it is better to avoid volatile stocks because you can become a hostage to fortune.

I have to say ii's in-specie transfer functionality is excellent - it is pretty much instantaneous provided both accounts are at same address. They also let you choose whether to transfer at market value or at book value (book value being what you want if transferring to a spouse) and also permit the in-specie transfer of partial holdings - you just tick the stocks you want to transfer and type in the nominals. I guess that since both holdings are in the same nominee account it is just a SQL edit for their database.

In fact it is the efficiency of the in-specie transfer function at ii that persuades me not to dump them and head over to Interactive Brokers (IBKR don't offer convenient in-specie transfers but are much cheaper on FX).

The 1.5% FX charge at ii really annoys me (yes, you can withdraw in foreign currency and convert elsewhere, but I've not found a way to duck the SWIFT fees so not worth it for small amounts), but as I tend to reinvest in foreign currencies I very rarely pay it.

With large amounts I withdraw the foreign currency and convert elsewhere.

Fri 7:22pm

But they are all quite different, with varying risk & exposure profiles.

Oakley Capital Investments (LON:OCI) has a European focus.

There is also ICG Enterprise Trust (LON:ICGT) which is also worth a look. Harbourvest Global Private Equity (LON:HVPE) is another.

I hold all 5 of them to some degree (HGT, OCI, PIN, HVPE & ICGT), and as the discounts move around I tend to top up accordingly. If I could only keep one it would probably be HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) .

Charles Mitchell

Fri 8:55pm

Monty-I did miss HGT. An error, but it happens with investing. I like the OCI portfolio.

yiannos1

Fri 9:11pm

RWS Holdings (LON:RWS)

A suggestion

the writers that hold a share shouldn’t been analysing it as well for the subscribers.

Another writer should be doing this.

RWS Holdings (LON:RWS) are not going to be able to maintain the dividend. If they do they are going to go bust later on.

All the best

boringchess

Fri 9:55pm

I'm happy enough with them analysing it as long as they declare their position. The ones that hold it have done the most research probably and can give the most thorough analysis and insight - just have to read it knowing they may have a serious bias as holders.

That said I looked at RWS yesterday and today and couldn't bring myself to take even a small position, hope to be proven wrong in the future but it looks like a very sharp knife to try to catch

Db47

Fri 10:26pm

well no, no Bed&SIPP transactions today...

I guess I'll just make the transactions myself and charge HL the extra costs... I don't know about anyone else but I do not like having 4 bed&SIPP transactions pending over onto a new day for obvious reasons. I wonder if their Helpdesk is open over the weekend.... ? I think I probably would like to change providers... but it's the hassle of the whole thing, so I think they've captured me for now with my laziness, I think I'll start looking at what different providers to HL can offer though.

Also while I'm here Mobico (LON:MCG) that's a hefty drop !! sorry to all follow holders :-(

BnB

Sat 6:10am

RWS Holdings (LON:RWS) are not going to be able to maintain the dividend. If they do they are going to go bust later on

Dividend needs to halve (at least) to avoid collapse. The structural issue looking forwards is that it looks unlikely that revenues can ever accelerate again as AI eats into its market. It’s possible margins could improve by using AI of course. And perhaps the company becomes the language translation equivalent of Smith’s News, generating decent cash flows from a shrinking product set, but on a cigar butt PER.

rwh3ue

Sat 8:09am

I was too busy yesterday to reply but I'm with HL and have never used their bed and ISA/Sipp service for the simple reason that I want to have control of the price I sell at and buy at. You can sell and buy back as you would with any other stock transaction but it depends on the size of the trade and the spread.
I have found it best if it is a large holding to ask to speak to the dealing desk. A dealer will get you a very minimal difference between sell and buy price and do it as you wait. You will pay a manual dealing fee on each trade and a spread that amounts to about £40 for the market maker's turn. In some cases that has saved me hundreds of pounds so it's worth doing the math before you decide how to proceed.

Don't bother speaking to the help desk about bed and ISA/Sipp as they probably haven't even heard of how a dealer can do it for you and will try to steer you to their standard process.

NewInvestor1972

Sat 8:23am

A bull point to add in for RWS Holdings (LON:RWS) - Benjamin Faes, Chief Executive Officer Did buy £670k’s worth of shares yesterday, he must have considerable faith in the business to invest that much of his own money

Sat 8:47am

well in that case @rwh3ue - I will speak to the dealing desk but I fear that might not be as simple as you make it sound anymore... last couple of years the Bed&SIPP has worked well at HL - the same price selling was the same price buying in the SIPP with tight spreads this happened for several transactions not long after the order was made !?!?

Sat 9:55am

Or he has more money than sense

Sat 10:11am

If I were them I would totally scrap the dividend and go into survival mode asap

Northender

Sat 10:44am

That could well be the case, the directors at Argentex (LON:AGFX) didn't seem to have much clue

Sat 1:43pm

-:)

Sat 2:10pm

Wow - That is taking incompetence to the next level….

Sat 5:14pm

They are covering 4 to 5+ companies a day and you want the person familiar with the stock not to cover it?

As long as they declare it, we will benefit from their prior knowledge and take our own view on whether bias has clouded their analysis. If the current batch of stocko writers are in the pump & dump game then they need to do a better job to earn their Ferraris.

You'll no doubt want the FCA to regulate this website next (and I will demand GIPS standards every time a writer has the temerity to call share price movement "performance").

Sat 5:59pm

This comment is under review

Yusuf Samad

Sat 7:25pm

Also look at Patria. In the same category of a fund of funds as PIP and HVPE, this is well diversified and has strong performance. Invests in European mid market funds and co-investments. Much better performance since Abrdn under Brd sold the business to Patria.

Harry Hindsight

Sat 8:08pm

RWS Holdings (LON:RWS) What is this rubbish. I want to make money. Crock of what …

Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 25 April 2025) - PIN, EVOK, AGFX, OMG, MCG, REC

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Graham Neary

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