Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 11 April 2025) - CCT, XLM, NIOX, BP., HLCL, OPT, KIST, ONDO

11th Apr by Graham Neary

40 comments 3986 reads

Good morning! We've reached the end of another tumultuous week in the markets.

The FTSE rose 3% yesterday and is set to open up by another 1% this morning, around the 8000 level.

After the dramatic announcement yesterday of a "90 day pause" on Trump's tariffs, excluding China, today is shaping up to be a quieter day for headlines.

2pm: I've made a clean sweep of today's announcements. Have a relaxing weekend - I think we all deserve it!

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
BP (LON:BP.) (£54.9bn)	Trading Statement	Upstream production lower quarter-on-quarter. Gas/low carbon energy: realisations broadly flat. Net debt up $4bn due to working capital build.	AMBER (Graham) [no section below] Sentiment around BP has been poor, especially in comparison with Shell (LON:SHEL), rightly it seems as BP's earnings forecasts have been slipping for some time. Today's guidance for lower production, partly due to divestments, looks to have been priced in already. BP had net debt of $23 billion at the end of 2024 and the $4bn increase in Q1 is expected to reverse. It has an investment-grade, single-A credit rating from all ratings agencies and so it should be reasonably secure. Since it's a resource stock, I take a neutral stance by default.
Niox (LON:NIOX) (£280m)	Response to Rule 2.8 announcement	SP down 20% No firm offer is made for NIOX. They discontinue their private sale process.	AMBER/GREEN (Graham) Some pros and cons here. The potential PE buyers have walked away, and the stock is undoubtedly expensive against short-term earnings. At the same time, the company's growth and improving quality up to this point are intriguing.
Helical (LON:HLCL) (£215m)	Trading Update	SP up 5% Forward sale of a joint venture (City office, 100 New Bridge Street) for £333m. Will distribute 50-100% of net profits to shareholders. Net debt currently £127m.	AMBER/GREEN (Graham) [no section below] Taking a moderately positive stance here as the entire REIT sector appears undervalued. Helical's most recent interim results showed net tangible assets of £408m (331p) and thanks to disposals, their pro-forma loan-to-value was only 15.9%, "its lowest ever level". The sale announced today is expected to trigger shareholder returns after it completes in April 2026. This stock carries additional risk due to its small size and dependence on the success of a small number of large projects, but I expect that…

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The Phoenix

11th Apr

As the much missed poster "wolf of small street " said on his brilliant summer bowls thread "avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance" what a great line and so apt for current times.

Can they kick him out ? its seems crazy they have given him so much power to run amok and blow everything up without even sending him to the naughty corner for thirty minutes , other than when bond markets showed him who the real master is.

I also wonder how far away from a 2008 like event we were on last Tuesday evening.

john2

There is a provision in the 25th amendment for the vice president and a majority of senior Republicans to declare him unable to discharge the duties of his office, but it’s vanishingly unlikely that this is going to happen.

Gag20806

Does anyone have the link to the spreadsheet that tracks the colour rating's given to stocks

ken mitchell

For the first time since subscribing to Stockopedia I’ve stopped reading the comments on the daily stock market report thread, and just read the excellent analysis by the team. I might miss a few good posts, but each time I’ve looked, gone are the often excellent replies on the shares covered by the team that help us with our investment decisions, and instead too many opinions and replies to them on Trump and his character or other off topic subjects. People are free to post what they like, but is it time to focus more on Companies again?

Graham Neary

Gag, I haven't updated that recently, sorry! https://docs.google.com/spread...

Conistons

Thanks. Can you keep the link at the top of each day's report please

Ken, we've just had one of the most dramatic two week periods in macro news in quite some time. An objective measurement of this is given by VIX hitting 5-year highs. I'd give some slack to people wanting to discuss this - it's not permanent! By the way, I was thinking of you when asking for a 90-day pause on CCT's buybacks. Maybe I don't support buybacks as often as you think! G

Good point Graham and knowing that you are relaxed about the current comments probably means my post is not what many here think about them either.

As for buybacks, I decided after our last posts where we disagreed about them not to post to post a reply again unless it seemed obviously detrimental or beneficial for the share price. It would be wrong for you to refrain from posting your buyback views for fear of yet another counter reply from me!

Though I don’t like buybacks (and the current widespread Investment Trust buybacks are failing, with some Trusts admitting so as their discounts widen even more) I agree some work well if executed sensibly; like when Management think the share is good value. That’s what Next (LON:NXT) do and their buybacks over the years have been very effective. So like you in reverse I don’t always denigrate buybacks.

Silver Moon

Yes,a Black Monday followed by a Fantastic Friday, all in one week! The weather hasn't been all that bad either but seriously, I'm looking forward to more gains than losses next week.

JimMcLad

Ken

A bit unfair on folks I feel. As Megan wrote on 4 April

“It feels a little futile to be writing a Week Ahead in these conditions. Financial results don’t matter much when the world has tipped over the brink and into an all out trade war and the biggest economies are now hurling tariffs at each other.”

This is the worst scenario in markets I can remember and detailed analysis of individual stocks in isolation won’t help – as I can see in my portfolios 8-(

Jim. I’ve already replied that I accept my post was misguided.

thanks Graham

Lord Gnome

Reading all the various comments on Trump here today, you need to be aware of just who is feeding him and Vance their ideology. Check out Curtis Yarvin, aka Mencius Moldbug. Spine chilling.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Tommy H

So some random thoughts for a Friday night.

Yes I have a glass of wine as no swim training tonight, and yes I am focusing on the positive!

Outside of the world of investing, I have personally been through the worst fortnight in my life, and I am still living and breathing. A long journey lies ahead and it is not going to be pleasant. But I am alive, I have not as good health as I thought at the start of the week, but it is a lot better than it could have been, and there is a path through this, and more tests still to be done. Thank you GP, thank you NHS, ok the wait might be how long, but I am in several queues and still doing tests but there is a plan. Then there are several other things to just have to work through which are going to be ouch ouch and ouch but if I am on a glass half full I can see the other side of the river, lots of rocks but I can at least get out of the rapids. Or maybe it is just a small island and I am not where I think I am in crossing the rapids, we shall see what tomorrow brings. Park Walk and the Yorkshire Masters Swimming Championships, that is easy what tomorrow brings :)

As to the financial world, well I did the year end accounts on 05 April 2025. Sorry habit of doing tax returns for various family members and apart from myself now no one needs to do one, so tick I have done good since taking over various family members money from advisors. Son do Good, Little Brother do Good.

My girls, well the last month has been hard on their JISA's, but they are still up overall when you look at their lifetime and it is a while until they can access, if they chose to do at that point, so right decisions made, granny has put a little gift in for the tax year, so keep drip feeding them when we can from the family not as much as the past but anything is better than nothing. Ouch but overall Dad do Good if looking beyond the 12 month time frame.

Mum, her ISA (aka Pension) obviously what it was on 05 April and what it was 06 April different story. So mum was able to withdraw to give the allowed gifts of capital to me, Big Sis, and the four grandkids, took all dividends to enjoy life, and as of 05 April had a capital gain of about 1% over the year (so about 3.4% if you include the withdrawal of capital), and the dividend income was ~8.9%. A big thank you to Ken and various others on the income dialogue - yes it is not everyone's priority, and some might not think it is exciting, but when mum is 83 this year and you can say plan on keep living life, doing good, enjoying yourself, not worrying about what the central heating costs, or modifications to future proof the house. Son do Good.

Big Sis, well we had gone to cash on the basis she was moving house and setting all the financing up for that to break chains and all that, so forget 8 months of the year. Role forward, overall down about 1% for the year after life changed in several walls and starting to reinvest, this is now all about getting a passive income and allowing her to reduce hours, or potentially stop work totally. So not great, but following Mum's ISA plan, lots of small investments which give a good yield. So I have a checklist, I am trying to follow that check list. Whilst she doesn't need the cash today, dividends are reinvested, but as soon as she says the word, they pay into her current account. So Little Brother doing ok, lets see how next year is watch this space!

As for me, well life see the first paragraph.

So ISAs sold before Christmas through necessity.

So left with two SIPPs, on AJ Bell and one Vanguard.

I will start with Vanguard, this as the name says it is about low cost ETF investing, I will be honest I need to re-read Edmund Shings book about momentum investing and moving averages and basically doing a once a month check and follow that. It is a bit like Eds portfolio but with ETFs. Anyway overall a 4.2% gain, so not as good as it could have been, missed the big spikes up, but also missed the recent draw downs. I am trying not to do my Buy High, Sell Low, Buy Even Higher, Sell Even Lower strategy here. So for me I did ok, could have done a lot better, but slept at night which with everything else going on is important. Slowly even with the volatility going on right now, I am trying to remember what the notes I had written in Covid were, I bought back but too early, got nervous and lost more. This time I am going back into the market with smaller purchases on the down days, Vanguard Funds - Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (LON:VUAG) is down 5% then buy a few at lunchtime, don't bet the house, just drip feed in again this is a several year journey.

AJ Bell, this is the start of my follow what I have done for mum strategy, I am just under 5 years from possibly starting to draw my pension, so looking at what income can I get, and how do I build a good income portfolio. So moving away from a few larger positions (e.g. 10 maximum 20 holdings in total) to lots of smaller positions, so yes I miss out on the big gains from things like offers on Care REIT (LON:CRT) but also I am not hit by big falls on a profit warning. So for the year an income of about 6.2% achieved, my model pension calculator assumes 5% is achievable, with a 4.2% capital gain, obviously on 05 April...so better than the Vanguard, but more actively involved here as this is where I see the future for my personal investing focus.

So yes I am probably missing out through moving a chunk of my pension into income earlier than I need to, but it is also about getting that confidence within myself that I can get the income I need to retire when I want to.

So thank you to the Stockopedia team, I have been here a long time now and it has been a good journey! And I will continue on that journey. You are worth the fees!

Thank you to the fellow posters, sorry Ken no detailed analysis but my brain cannot cope with that right now, I am on a simple checklist if things meet that then that triggers buy or sell.

So it is a good day, life is ok, I am still here, I am still investing, I did good, could do better but then every day is a school day!

Good luck all

Tommy

Funderstruck

Thanks Graham, for yet again a Stirling comprehensive report.

Tommy H. ; I understand the need to set down thoughts at times such as you just experienced.

My recent experience of the NHS Cardiac Unit at my local hospital, yesterday, was excellent and only took two weeks from when booked to get the CT Angiogram. You will be in good hands.

12th Apr

Realised a total goof on my maths, sorry folks, good job it was not a detailed analysis, AJ Bell total gain for the year was 4.27%, but as the income was 6.2%, that actually was a capital loss of 2%...

SCI20

Thanks TommyH for this post. There is something very therapeutic, even reassuring about your take on things. Good health is true wealth. Good luck

Patrickmylnetrade

13th Apr

Hi Tommy

Fingers crossed it all comes good health and portfolio wise. Post more… you obvs have value to add.

Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 11 April 2025) - CCT, XLM, NIOX, BP., HLCL, OPT, KIST, ONDO

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Graham Neary

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