Bluesky Ventura Process 2023 year-end and 4 year review

30th Dec '23 by Bluesky Ventura

8 comments 1061 reads

Bluesky Ventura Process 2023 year-end

A positive second-half return of 1.5%, provided a total yearly return of 9.9%. In a difficult year, I can't complain about a small positive return. Again an equally weighted top ten portfolio would have posted a better return than the rest of my portfolio.

Positions marketed in red have been sold out. $HVO

New to the portfolio is in green .$TCAP, $DX, $HVO (was green but was sold out within the year)

I've attached links to previous lists below.

2023 half year

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

2022 year end

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

2022 half year

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

Bluesky Ventura Process 4-year review

It has been four years since I started this process it is time to take a look at any learnings I can gather. So I've asked myself the following questions;

1. Should stick with a 6-month stock decision cycle. (Every 6 months or every 1 year)

When the system was conceived I wanted to limit the need to buy and sell stocks think I was a buy-and-hold investor and reduce trading costs. So the system aims to prioritize 5 year return period. I looked at what returns would like for 1-year holding periods before rotation and 6-month periods. Over the four years, the 6-month decision has returned an annual return rate of 24.6% CAGR compared to a 1-year decision return of 12.9%. In four years 10 new stocks have been selected and 10 positions completely sold out. (25 stock held in total). 6-month rotation seems about right as returns appear to be twice as much.

2. Should I be holding 25-30 different positions?

Over four years the returns from the top 10 are 24.6%CAGR, over the same the other 15-20 stocks have achieved break even. This makes me question how many stocks should I hold and how good am really at stock picking. I decided that 15 stocks should be the maximum number of stocks I should own with this decision system.

3. When do I completely sell a position?

Out of the 10 times, I've completely sold out, 4 times the company valuation each fair value and I sold. 3 times the company was brought out by another company, and 3 times I sold out to have cash for new positions. The system helps me close positions when the economics change, valuations…

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Indie

30th Dec '23

Hi BSV, in April 2021 you created a post wondering whether to quit the day job and focus fully on investing. It generated a lot of really interesting discussion. Just wondering what, if anything, has changed for you since then, if you don't mind sharing?

Bluesky Ventura

31st Dec '23

Hi Indie,

I think I mentioned at the time that I didn't quite bite the bullet then but decided to take some more time off as an extra holiday to do a few more things.

Things have developed over the past two years. The kids are all adults and have flown the nest, I am essentially mortgage-free. So quitting is very financially viable with next to zero risk.

I have solid plans for what to do with the time once I quit. A combination, of more cricket, golf, travel, and consultancy work occasionally. Investing wise I want to extend the investment process I have but for the USA market where I believe there are more opportunities.

I would say I have already quite quit in reality. The company is experiencing the current recession and I would say my position is likely to become redundant. I am just waiting for the redundancy package to arrive. So 2024 could be the year!

BSV

Exciting times! I took voluntary redundancy once when I was going anyway; it was good to be paid to leave.

Thanks for the update; good to know it's working out for you.

(I did find your previous update after posting; had been looking in the wrong place; was hiding in plain sight in the original post! Good to know what's happened since then.)

The Phoenix

1st Jan

Always enjoy your updates Bluesky I remember once waiting for a redundancy package to arrive similar scenario to you, I was ready to go after 15 years with my then employer and was nice to get the pay off and the ability to cash in all share saves free of cgt was another bonus.

The strange thing was after leaving and being in one place for so long I felt christ I have been out of the job market so long will I ever get another job but am pleased to say after working six years self employed part time now its been great.

The one thing i have noticed is swapping roles now doesn't bother me in the slightest probably for the reasons you mention although children haven't flown the nest yet in another 3-5 years they should both be earning and paying board to take the pressure off dear old dad, and although I have a mortgage it's pretty small and i have no other debt.

I'm not fond of getting older but at least once the responsibilities of middle age pass the downhill slide is then insight where less money is needed and you start to get more leisure time back for yourself the important thing is staying fit and healthy to enjoy it when it rolls into sight.

2nd Jan

Hi Phoenix,

I am pleased to hear you like the updates. There was a time when money used to leave my hand like water, increased my mortgage needed a bigger house, had bills coming out of my ears had no savings having spent it all on the new house, and no job/income. the stress of finding a job was considerable.

Financial freedom feels relatively stress-free.

I hope you enjoy your freedom also.

14 Double Up

Thanks for sharing, interesting to read, I ask myself similar questions. With regards question 2; personally I try to only hold 4-5 stocks, the logic being that any more than that will dilute performance and I may as well have a low cost tracker. That said, its my active portfolio, things like my pension, property investment, I consider as general trackers, allowing me to be more targeted with the actively managed pot.

4th Jan

It sounds like an excellent way to be focused. What is the holding period for your stocks?

As I'm thinking about holding for 5 years with each investment I feel I need at least 15 stocks to hold.

Good luck for 2024.

Caper4

Thanks for update Bluesky. I suspect I am the oldest member of this community and I gave up my day job over 30 years ago now and have never regretted it. We were married before we were both 21 and had our kids before we were 25 so did not hang around!! Hence the kids were working, after university, before I was 50 , so it was a relatively easy decision to start working for myself .
‘We now spend half our life in the UK and other half in the beautiful Cape wine lands where I am involved in a very successful winery and a restaurant and wine merchant in London . In other words, I am working at my two passions in life, wine and food !!. In the last few years, since coming across Stockopedia , I have very successfully managed a couple of fairly large portfolios focusing mainly on UK small caps and this has become my third passion .

Believe me , “ retirement “ is never boring and never too early, provided you have interests that keep you busy and are enjoyable .

Bluesky Ventura Process 2023 year-end and 4 year review