Bluesky Ventura Process 2023 year-end
A positive second-half return of 1.5%, provided a total yearly return of 9.9%. In a difficult year, I can't complain about a small positive return. Again an equally weighted top ten portfolio would have posted a better return than the rest of my portfolio.
Positions marketed in red have been sold out. $HVO
New to the portfolio is in green .$TCAP, $DX, $HVO (was green but was sold out within the year)
I've attached links to previous lists below.
2023 half year
https://www.stockopedia.com/co...
2022 year end
https://www.stockopedia.com/co...
2022 half year
https://www.stockopedia.com/co...
Bluesky Ventura Process 4-year review
It has been four years since I started this process it is time to take a look at any learnings I can gather. So I've asked myself the following questions;
1. Should stick with a 6-month stock decision cycle. (Every 6 months or every 1 year)
When the system was conceived I wanted to limit the need to buy and sell stocks think I was a buy-and-hold investor and reduce trading costs. So the system aims to prioritize 5 year return period. I looked at what returns would like for 1-year holding periods before rotation and 6-month periods. Over the four years, the 6-month decision has returned an annual return rate of 24.6% CAGR compared to a 1-year decision return of 12.9%. In four years 10 new stocks have been selected and 10 positions completely sold out. (25 stock held in total). 6-month rotation seems about right as returns appear to be twice as much.
2. Should I be holding 25-30 different positions?
Over four years the returns from the top 10 are 24.6%CAGR, over the same the other 15-20 stocks have achieved break even. This makes me question how many stocks should I hold and how good am really at stock picking. I decided that 15 stocks should be the maximum number of stocks I should own with this decision system.
3. When do I completely sell a position?
Out of the 10 times, I've completely sold out, 4 times the company valuation each fair value and I sold. 3 times the company was brought out by another company, and 3 times I sold out to have cash for new positions. The system helps me close positions when the economics change, valuations…