Arrow Global (LON:ARW) had their capital markets day on Wed 8th November.
The presentations and material given are available here:https://fotwlive.videosync.fi/2018-11-08-arrow-cmd-2018?seek=5293
Beware it was a half day and there's 115 slides in the pack. I am not sure how long this will be available for.
It is clear that this is the start of the company's response to the fact that it has recently become quite heavily shorted.
I just thought I would put it out there for interested PI's.
I am a holder, and I went in person because I wanted a deep dive to help me decide the fate of this investment, and to see the management team in action. For what it's worth, I was deeply impressed. To the extent that the short interest gave me serious concerns, these have been substantially allayed. I hope the company makes efforts to communicate a bit more with the PI community.
DYOR could not be more appropriate here. If the short interest fizzles out or is the subject of a squeeze, there could be a swift and significant rerating. If the short case has merit, investors capital will diminish, possibly substantially!
Thoughts, comment and debate welcome!
Hello Frederick, all
Anyone got hold of a short thesis on Arrow Global (LON:ARW) ?
I've no idea if this is a good or a bad company. I like a bit of controversy and the dissonance it brings and in the past I have been willing to go long heavily shorted stocks as if you can see its not a zero, massive dilution and has a future then there is a chance to make good returns if you can stomach the volatility.
That said, Arrow has some interesting and serious short sellers playing against it:
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BDGTXM47/
IMO Bybrook, CPMG (Cardinal of Rusty Rose fame from Dallas), Naya, Portsea and Thunderbird are serious short selling foes. They may be wrong or near their target but these are guys that will have made a serious commitment to understanding the case. The other guys are little bit more run it by the numbers IMO and run big low commitment portfolios.
Bybrook is the most interesting as its actually a credit fund (an absolute value credit manager in their words which means they will short as well as long). It'd be interesting to know whether they are just short the equity based on it being the place they can leverage a credit view most or whether they are long the debt and short the equity as an event driven debt and financing covenant driven play.
I'm going to try and look at this if I have time as this is the sort of thing that has frisson and optionality around it. Instinct and past experience tells me that all the short sellers above are awaiting an event that has not yet transpired so to hold the stock got to find the event...and that means that there is likely still negative event surprise ahead. Given the low valuation and the fact that these short sellers are still holding (recently increasing) suggests to me that the price is going to find more meaningful downside action in the near-ish term rather than breakout to the positive so if you like this company longer term you can get a better moment to either buy or top up.
I'm very interested in any further info or views...
Best wishes
Paul