The daily commute and also working from home allows me to consume a lot of podcasts. There is a lot of dross created but the following are 3 really good listens. My rubbish notes included below.
Russ Mould on Vox Markets: Will the BoE really hold rates higher for longer ?
# Retail REITs doing okay but question mark hanging over Office REITs (SSB: but for how long ? Lots of employers now asking their workers to return to the office 3+ days per week).
# Discussion on how to buy bonds. GILTs paying 4.5% to 5% (SSB: sorry to say I hold TN24 which matures at the end of January. What to do then with the cash I still need to figure out, suggestions welcome).
# National Savings paying 6%.
# Note that bond funds never mature and so the investor is exposed to duration risk. But retail investors should expect managers to manage this risk re a mix of short and long duration bonds.
# Justin Waite suggests interest rates are like “table top mountain” re higher for longer. RM: history says this is unlikely to be the case because either the economy or the markets will break first and the MPC will be forced to bring rates down.
# “Table top mountain” scenario is consistent with a soft landing / no recession. How likely is this ?
# Oil is the biggest variable for inflation especially if central bankers cut rates too fast.
# Natural corrective mechanism for high oil prices: the cure for high prices is high prices because people demand less! (SSB: don't tell the BBC, they'll be outraged :-)
# Oil was $19 only 3 years ago during covid.
# De-globalisation will help workers over capital ie a reversal of the last 40 years.
SSB: really enjoy listening to Russ Mould, he is a sensible guy who isn't afraid to challenge the consensus.
Christopher Mills on The Funds Fantastic Show: It's hard to be optimistic, but we're busy money-makers.
SSB: Paul Hill has interviewed CM a number of times. Harwood Capital manages NAS and OIG.
# Niox used to be Circassia (6 mins).
# Harwood Capital investment philosophy is to find companies trading at a discount + a strong b/sheet + ensure it's not a value trap by speaking with the company plus other investors to…