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Hi,
I agree that the IC position on Flybe was pretty ludicrous. It was a game-changing refinancing, that more than doubled the number of shares in issue. So the fact that the share price remained about 10p higher whilst it was going through was a very bullish sign in my opinion - as it meant that investors were confident about putting in the new money, and not flipping the new shares for an instant profit (which you can do before you receive them, through a CFD or Spread Bet).
I happily took up my entitlement of new shares, and was very happy to have a larger position in the company because it is now rock solid in terms of Balance Sheet strength, whereas before the fundraising it looked a bit precarious financially.
If you consider that the management at Flybe are ex-Easyjet, then they are likely to replicate Easyjet's success at Flybe. Easyjet made an operating profit margin of 11.7% in 2013, so if Flybe gets to that level then profit could be as high as £70m on about £600m turnover. Take off a bit for tax, and that's earnings of say £55m, so put that on a PER of say 15, and you arrive at a potential mkt cap of about £825m, which would equate to a share price of almost 400p. So there is good potential upside here. Also they could probably raise turnover further, now they have plenty of funds to expand.
So personally I am pencilling in a share price rise to 200-300p in the next year, and will probably begin top-slicing once it has got into that range.
Regards, Paul.
Analysis of yesterday's results from CAPA:
http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/flybe-is-reborn-with-a-return-to-profit-after-three-years-of-losses-now-to-consolidate-172325